But this does not mean that the Lukashenka regime will be able to take advantage of them. The probability of freezing access to the SDR account for the illegitimate government of Belarus is extremely high.
The regime understands this and is already beginning to react to our campaign, stating that "the refusal to transfer will not affect the country’s economy in any way." But we have already gone through this with "sanctions that do not work."
In fact, the regime knows that denial of access to IMF funds will lead to default. Therefore, the decisions already made by the IMF on the issue of SDRs and their distribution among the participating countries are a trap for Lukashenka.
When the IMF decides to block access to the SDR — as has already happened with Venezuela and Myanmar — the holders of previously issued Belarus Eurobonds in the amount of $ 3.25 billion will immediately have the right to demand their early redemption. Which, in turn, will mean the announcement of default on these bonds.
What options does the regime have?
- Declare bankruptcy and "forgive everyone to whom he owes", including Russia (which is clearly not happy with this);
- Finally exchange all your debt obligations for sovereignty in favor of Russia, which will take them upon itself;
- Pay off debts at the expense of gold and foreign exchange reserves — the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, the real size of which is unlikely to allow, since we know that it is greatly overestimated in the reporting of the National Bank.
Let’s consider option 3. How to quickly replenish gold reserves?
The answer is simple — at the expense of foreign currency deposits of citizens. According to official data, the total volume of foreign currency deposits in Belarusian banks today is just over $ 5 billion. Even taking into account the National Bank’s overestimation of this figure by about 2 times, this money is still enough to urgently pay off external creditors.
But first, this money must be mastered. And the regime has long-developed schemes for this, including the "big bank robbery", gray schemes with "junk bonds" of the Asset Management Agency (AMA), as well as the Development Bank.
Simply, if the regime is denied access to credit funds from the IMF, it will forcibly expropriate the foreign currency deposits of Belarusians, in return giving depositor’s Belarusian rubles and bonds of the Development Bank.
How can we resist this?
Back in March, the NAM called on Belarusians to participate in the ATM-Exchange-Bank action. Now that the regime is trapped in the IMF, it depends only on us whether it can get out of it at our expense.
- Do not keep money on bank cards — switch to cash;
- Do not keep money in rubles — stock up on currency;
- Withdraw all deposits from banks — especially foreign ones.
The regime is on the brink of default. Don’t let him turn your savings into a golden parachute.
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