What conclusions can we draw from the published executive order of the President of the United States?
1) A powerful tool for a new stage of pressure on the regime is the emergence of secondary sanctions, on which we made a special emphasis in the NAM analytical note. Previously, the US sanctions program against Belarus did not provide for the use of this instrument. Now, the sword of Damocles of financial punishment will hang over the partners of Belarusian enterprises that have come under the sanctions — wherever they are and in whatever currency they pay.
2) Sectoral sanctions: we justified the need to impose sanctions related to the military sector, the tobacco industry, and transport. The petrochemical and financial sectors are not yet on the list of the United States, but state-owned enterprises operating in these sectors will be subject to sanctions on an individual basis. And in combination with secondary sanctions, this means that any company, not only American, that cooperates with them, risks falling under US sanctions.
3) The next strong point is the lack of a deadline for the completion of previous contracts — unlike European sanctions, there is no delay in the US executive order. The only exception: there is a deadline for terminating relations with Belaruskali — until December 8.
4) The responsibility for the invention of sanctions evasion schemes has been toughened, which was also one of the points of the NAM proposal.
5) All centers of power — the EU, UK, USA and Canada — are now working together, which greatly increases the strength of the sanctions.
We are now preparing a full analysis of the imposed sanctions — and it will be published soon.
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