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Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. On which dictatorial regimes Lukashenko collaborates with around the world While Lukashenko talks about "stability," and his propagandists praise him as a "people’s leader", in reality, a grim world map is being created where the threads of shadowy deals stretch from Minsk to Tehran, Pyongyang, Caracas, and even the jungles of Myanmar. At the center of this web is Lukashenko, who has turned Belarus into a transit hub for dictators and terrorists. While Belarusian potash fertilizers are being loaded at the ports of Makhachkala for Iran or sent by train to China via Russia, Lukashenko's regime is not just trying to adapt to sanctions but is actively helping the Kremlin and its allies sow chaos across the world. From dump trucks for North Korea and trucks for Zimbabwe to weapons for Myanmar’s junta and missiles in Cuba — Lukashenko is not just playing on the same team with Russia, he has become part of the global "axis of evil". Despite new logistics routes and open support from the Kremlin, Belarusian Potash Company (Belaruskali) is facing mounting problems. Last year, the production and delivery costs for Russia's "Uralkali" increased by 30%. This was mainly due to rising logistics costs. It can be confidently stated that the costs due to similar factors are significantly increasing for Belaruskali as well. However, instead of making concessions and changing its policy to achieve a suspension of sanctions, Lukashenko's regime has entered into a cartel conspiracy with Russia. On November 4, 2024, Lukashenko proposed to coordinate with Russia to reduce potash production by 10%, complaining about too low prices, which were causing Belaruskali to sell potash below its production costs. As a result, in January 2025, it became known that Belaruskali plans to cut its potash production by about 1 million tons in the first half of 2025. Annually, the reduction may reach 2 million tons, almost a fifth of Belarus’s total potash production. In February 2025, Uralkali also announced that production in the second quarter would be reduced by at least 300 thousand tons, and exports would be cut by 400 thousand tons. In the potash industry, Lukashenko is not competing with Russia but is acting alongside it, just as he does in the military sphere. And the easing of sanctions on potash would benefit both Lukashenko and his Kremlin friends, who are helping him in every possible way. It is important to remember that Lukashenko's regime is part of the global "axis of evil" — a network of other dictatorial and terrorist regimes that threaten international security, spread discord, repression, wars, and conflicts around the world. And he does this with the proceeds from the same potash and other natural resources of Belarus, which should belong to the people, not to the organized criminal group headed by Lukashenko.

Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską In the final Protocol, among other points, the following results and agreements were noted: Legalization of children born in Poland. The Polish side confirmed the possibility of submitting applications for the legalization of the stay of children and individual consideration of such cases. They also requested that information be sent to the Office if there are issues in contacting the voivodeship authorities regarding the legalization of the stay of such children, so that, if necessary, such requests can be promptly addressed. Recognition of the Polish travel document for foreigners as a document confirming identity. The Belarusian side informed about difficulties, for example, when it comes to employment, providing banking services, and carrying out other formalities. The Polish representatives noted that the problems with the recognition of such documents in banks and other institutions were mainly due to a lack of information. The Office for Foreigners will contact the Ministry of the Interior and Administration and the Financial Supervision Commission regarding the recognition by the relevant institutions of the foreigner’s temporary identity document, Belarusian passport with a humanitarian visa, and travel document as identification documents for confirming the identity of the applicants. Issuance of a travel document for foreigners for more than 1 year and the possibility to apply for it 6 months before the passport expires. The possibility of introducing such changes will be considered during the next amendment to the law on foreigners. Issuance of a travel document when there are no free pages in the passport. The Office for Foreigners will consider this issue and, if necessary, inform the voivodeship authorities about possible solutions. Right to work while awaiting a decision on the provision of international protection. The Polish side informed that for individuals who had this right before applying for protection (e.g., under a humanitarian visa), this issue will be reviewed during the next amendment to the legislation. Entrepreneurship. The proposals from the Belarusian side regarding the permission to engage in business for certain categories of foreigners have been forwarded to the Ministry of Development and Technology. Non-disclosure of information to Belarusian authorities regarding Belarusians obtaining international protection status. The Office for Foreigners noted that when Polish authorities send any requests regarding a Belarusian citizen to Belarusian bodies and institutions, it is unacceptable to disclose that the individual has received international protection in Poland. The Polish representatives requested to be informed about such cases. "We will continue working with the Office for Foreigners and the Ministry of the Interior and Administration of Poland to find solutions to the problematic issues of legalizing the stay of Belarusians in Poland. It is important to note that the Polish authorities have committed to reviewing and analyzing several of our proposals, as well as sending requests to the relevant ministries and agencies",  said Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management.

Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. On the regime's attempts to militarize Belarusian children For Lukashenko, children are not the future of the nation, but a tool for survival, expendable resources, no matter how frightening that may sound. He doesn't care that militarization robs them of the chance for a normal life. The main thing is to stay in power, even if it means turning an entire generation into hostages of the regime. The usurper is ready to send our children anywhere and at any time to maintain his personal power. Lukashenko openly admitted this, for example, in a recent interview with blogger Naufal. In particular, he said that he was ready to send Belarusian soldiers to defend Putin from Prigozhin. He was willing to sacrifice the lives of thousands of young Belarusians in a potential conflict inside Russia, just to continue ruling peacefully. Why is the regime actively militarizing schoolchildren and engaging in military propaganda? The dictator needs loyal personnel — and the sooner they are prepared, the better. Children who are today holding guns at the "Open Doors Day" could tomorrow become soldiers or policemen, ready to defend the regime from their own people. Propaganda instead of a future: What are children losing? While schoolchildren listen to OMON officers talk about their "glorious service," their peers in other countries are learning programming, artificial intelligence, or ecology. In Belarus, however, education is increasingly becoming a tool of propaganda. Instead of developing critical thinking, children are instilled with blind loyalty to the regime. Textbooks are rewritten to reflect Lukashenko's ideology, and teachers who dare to disagree are put under pressure or thrown in jail. Militarization is not just handing out weapons. It's a signal: your future is not in freedom and creativity, but in serving the system. The regime is not interested in raising independent, thoughtful citizens who could one day challenge the government. It needs executors — those who will shoot on command, as the security forces did in 2020 when they dispersed peaceful protests. The children being taught to hold guns today are not just objects of upbringing; they are a resource that Lukashenko plans to use to preserve his throne. History provides examples of dictators using children to strengthen their power. In the Soviet Union, pioneers were part of the ideological machine, and in North Korea, children are taught from a young age to worship the Kims. Lukashenko is following the same path, adapting it to Belarusian realities. By handing out weapons to schoolchildren, the regime is not simply popularizing the police; it is preparing them for the role of future punishers who will protect Lukashenko from the people, including their own friends and neighbors. What will happen if this policy continues? Already, the country is losing its future. Thousands of families left Belarus after 2020, saving their children from repression and hopelessness. Those who stayed face a system where, instead of education, there is propaganda, and instead of opportunities, there is a uniform. Children with guns in their hands, enthusiastic stories from OMON officers, police vans as symbols of "Open Doors" — all of this screams about the horror that has become the norm.

Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. How Lukashenko's regime might introduce the Russian ruble in Belarus On March 10, Lukashenko gathered his close associates to shift the burden of power onto new shoulders. In front of the cameras, he called Roman Golovchenko, his former prime minister, "a man who has sat on the hot skillet for too long" and appointed him to head the National Bank. Alexander Turchin, an administrator from the Minsk region whose career is built on loyalty to the regime, replaced him as prime minister. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, and over the three decades of his leadership, his style of governance has become predictable: keeping everyone in suspense, swapping loyal officials, and suppressing any signs of independence. The appointments made on March 10 are no exception. Roman Golovchenko became the head of the National Bank, while Alexander Turchin, previously leading the Minsk region, took the position of prime minister. Both are graduates of the Academy of Management under Lukashenko, both are economists by education, and both are products of a system where loyalty to Lukashenko is valued more than competence. Lukashenko himself emphasized this, stating that the new government has "many economists", and that Golovchenko "has learned more about the economy from life than anyone else". But behind these words lies not care for the country, but calculation: in the crisis situation, the dictator needs people who will follow his will, not look for a way out of the impasse. Lukashenko uses appointments as a tool of control and intimidation. By moving Golovchenko to the National Bank, he doesn't let him "rest," as he put it, but assigns him a new task: to bring the banking system under his interests. Turchin is tasked with "turning the economy upside down" — a phrase that means distorting meaning. This is not a slip of the tongue, but a symbol: Lukashenko is not looking for reforms; he wants to maintain the illusion of stability. For the other officials, this is a signal: no one is safe. The reshuffles remind them that their positions are shaky, and loyalty is the only ticket to survival. But this also creates hidden discontent: every new "economist" in the government is a potential competitor, and every order from Lukashenko is another nail in the coffin of their autonomy. The economy of Belarus in 2025 is a minefield: thousands of Belarusian specialists left the country in 2024, and this process continues, while inflation is accelerating, fueling the people's fatigue. Lukashenko is counting on new faces to pull his regime out of the abyss, but he doesn't realize that he is pushing the country into an even deeper deadlock, where there is almost no way out. At the same time, Russia has never abandoned its plan, at the final stage of integration, to switch Belarus to the Russian ruble, as outlined in the agreement on the formation of the so-called Union State. The share of national currencies in settlements between Belarus and Russia has already reached 98%. It is clear that settlements are primarily made in Russian rubles, not Belarusian ones. It is likely that Golovchenko and Turchin will be the ones to implement the Kremlin's dream of a common currency. Under pressure from Moscow and amid economic dependence on Russia, they will probably promote this project, despite the loss of Belarus's financial sovereignty.

Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. Lukashenko Lends to Russia While Belarus Drowns – Kallaur’s Resignation as a Symptom of Crisis On March 10, 2025, Lukashenko dismissed Pavel Kallaur, the head of the National Bank, who had held the position for over ten years. This decision shocked the country’s banking system. Why was a true professional fired during such a difficult time? One of the reasons for Kallaur’s dismissal was his disagreement with the policy of granting loans to Russian companies at the end of 2024. Not long ago, I addressed Pavel Kallaur with a suggestion to go to Lukashenko and propose disconnecting Belarusian banks from Russia’s Central Bank’s Financial Messaging System — Russia’s equivalent of SWIFT. But just days ago, Lukashenko fired Kallaur from his post. Let’s try to understand why Lukashenko dismissed Kallaur and what Belarusian loans to Russia have to do with it. Pavel Vladimirovich Kallaur Kallaur was one of the few officials in the regime who, apart from serving the dictator, tried to think about the interests of Belarus as a state. It is known that Russia, like Lukashenko’s regime, faced a series of European and American sanctions due to its actions, losing a significant portion of financial resources for developing primarily its military-industrial complex, which is critically important for continuing the war. The question arose of how to compensate for these losses. It is often said that Russia compensates Lukashenko’s regime for its losses from the imposed sanctions. Yes, that is true, but it’s not that simple. There is also a reverse process at play. So, let’s look at how Lukashenko’s regime compensates Russia for the losses it faces due to the war and sanctions. While Lukashenko demands that officials save every penny and Belarusian citizens work three or four jobs, he himself is squandering the country’s resources to support someone else’s war. At the end of 2024, Belarusian banks issued loans to Russian companies worth half a billion dollars. These aren’t just numbers — it’s a story about how the dictator is selling the future of his citizens to preserve his throne. This money could have gone to schools, hospitals, or roads in Belarus itself, but instead, it is supporting the Russian economy — a country that is waging war against Ukraine. Lukashenko’s regime, desperately clinging to power, is turning Belarus into a financial cushion for Moscow, sacrificing the well-being of the Belarusian people. And Kallaur apparently disagreed with this, which is why he paid the price. But why did Belarusian banks become a lifeline for Russia? A. Lukashenko and V. Putin The issue lies in the difference in interest rates: in Russia, the discount rate reached 21% in 2024, while in Belarus it remained at 9.5%. For Russian companies, which are suffocating under sanctions and high interest rates, Belarusian loans are a cheap loophole. In December 2024, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Belarusbank  and Belagroprombank  provided Russian enterprises with no less than $500 million. These banks, like the entire banking system, have long been fully subordinated to the interests of Lukashenko, who has been mocking the country for decades. After the 2020 protests and the start of the war in Ukraine, the West imposed strict sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime, cutting it off from European markets. By 2024, the country's economy continues to stagnate. Moscow uses Belarus as a workaround for sanctions, and now as a source of cheap financing. But while Lukashenko publicly demands that officials “find money and investment,” his personal actions say the opposite: he is handing out Belarusian resources, leaving his own country with empty pockets. Economy to Retain Power Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service states: “Belarusian banks are effectively financing the Russian economy, including the war against Ukraine.” These are not empty words. Half a billion dollars is a significant sum for Belarus’ banking system, whose resources have been depleted by sanctions and internal crises. In 2024, the National Bank of Belarus set the average loan rate for businesses at 8.5%, but access to these funds for local businesses sharply decreased. Why? Because priority is given to Russian borrowers, who bring political dividends to Lukashenko. This decision undermines the Belarusian economy on all fronts. Firstly, the outflow of money abroad leaves local businesses with no chance of development. Secondly, it contributes to slowing down economic growth and may also spur inflation: in 2024, food prices already significantly increased, and this trend accelerated in January-February 2025. Thirdly, it undermines the stability of Belarus’ banking system: if Russia does not repay its debts — a high risk given its own problems — Belarusian banks will be on the brink of crisis. Lukashenko, however, demonstrates stunning hypocrisy. He periodically scolds officials for “wasting money,” demanding they save the budget and attract investment. But issuing $500 million to Russia in December is not saving — it’s squandering resources for the Kremlin. His goal is clear: to strengthen the alliance with Moscow to maintain support without which his regime would collapse. However, this strategy condemns Belarus to be a donor, not a partner, draining the last of the country’s strength. Life of Belarusians Under Pressure Imagine an average Belarusian, who has a small business, such as a clothing store, barely staying afloat, and is denied a loan by a bank, citing “limited resources.” Meanwhile, Russian companies that received Belarusian loans continue production — including military equipment that is used to shell Ukrainian cities. For small business owners like him, this is not just an economic downturn — it’s the loss of hope for a normal life while Lukashenko gives their money away abroad. Lukashenko Against His People Lukashenko constantly sells the future of Belarus to save himself. By giving loans to Russian companies, he is not only supporting the war in Ukraine — he is condemning his country to poverty and backwardness. The half a billion dollars that left in December 2024 for Russia are stolen opportunities for Belarusian families, factories, and cities. While he demands that officials save every penny, he himself is squandering the country’s resources as if they mean nothing. His fear of losing power has turned Belarus into a hostage of the Kremlin, and its people into victims of a political game. Lukashenko continues to dance on the edge of the abyss, not noticing that he is dragging the entire country down with him. The only question is how long the people will continue to pay for his fear — and when they will decide that enough is enough. And that will surely happen.

Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. The working group created by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration of Poland, dealing with the legalization of Belarusians staying in Poland, has resumed its activities. The first meeting of the working group recently took place in Warsaw, led by Tomasz Cytrynowicz , Head of the Office for Foreigners of Poland. The Belarusian side was led by Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet. The meeting was also attended by Vitaly Malchanau , Deputy for Social Policy of the Cabinet, Hanna Matyevska , Head of the Partyzanka initiative, and Olga Karpushonak , Delegate of the Coordination Council. Tomasz Cytrynowicz informed Pavel Latushka that, in the past year, over 48,000 Belarusian citizens had applied for legalization of their stay in Poland. In January 2025 alone, there were more than 4,000 such applications, which, as the Polish representative noted, demonstrates the continued flow of Belarusian citizens seeking to legalize their stay in Poland. During the meeting, several issues were discussed, including: Reducing the Processing Time for Legalization Cases for Belarusians in Poland. Tomasz Cytrynowicz reported that the Polish side is making efforts to shorten the processing time for legalization cases for Belarusians.  In the second half of 2025, changes are planned to be introduced to the foreigner law that will allow the introduction of an electronic system for submitting documents for foreigners as part of the legalization procedure . These changes are expected to accelerate the processing of cases, minimize the number of visits required for applicants to the Office for Foreigners of Poland and the Voivodeship Offices, and positively impact the issue of intermediaries. The procedure will involve an electronic form to fill out the application with an electronic signature, followed by submitting fingerprints, providing additional documents (if necessary), and receiving the documents. Issues Related to the Grounds for Issuing Travel Documents. The possibility of issuing travel documents to Belarusians was discussed not only in the case of an expired passport or lack of one, but also when the pages for visas and stamps are full or when the passport was issued more than 10 years ago. Tomasz Cytrynowicz supported the need to consider the interpretation of the current legislation that would expand the grounds for issuing travel documents to Belarusians. After analyzing Poland’s current legislation, the Cabinet will send an appropriate response. Issues Related to the Issuance Period of Travel Documents. Pavel Latushka suggested considering the possibility of issuing travel documents for more than 1 year, as is currently done . The Polish representative informed that there is an ongoing discussion about amending the legislation to extend the validity period of such documents, but it has not yet been determined how long these documents will be issued in the future. Issuance of Travel Documents to Belarusian Children. The issue of issuing travel documents to Belarusian children born in Poland was discussed, particularly when the parents are unable to go to Belarus to arrange a passport for the child. Tomasz Cytrynowicz stated that such cases would be considered individually by the Voivodeship Offices based on the parents' applications. We ask you to inform the Cabinet @belcabinet_bot  about any cases of refusal to issue documents for children so that we can monitor the situation and inform the Office for Foreigners of Poland.

Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. Achieving the goal of a future democratic Belarus was the main topic of discussion during a meeting between Deputy Head of the Cabinet Pavel Latushka and the Political Director of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Gerard Keown. In light of global security challenges and the war waged by Russia against Ukraine with the support of the Lukashenko regime, special attention was given to the necessity of considering support for Belarusian society in the development of Europe's future security strategy. Belarusian citizens oppose the war and aspire to live in a democratic, European, and independent state — the Republic of Belarus. Pavel Latushka requested support from the representative of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, specifically for: Independent media and bloggers, ensuring their ability to operate despite ongoing repression. Non-governmental organizations, particularly those focused on human rights protection. Additionally, the meeting covered: Strategies for pressuring the Lukashenko regime, including: Holding Lukashenko and his accomplices internationally accountable for aggression against Ukraine, war crimes related to the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children, and crimes against humanity against the Belarusian people. Expanding and harmonizing sanctions against the regime at the European level. The situation in Belarus: A significant number of political prisoners remain in the country, with repression continuing in full force. All independent political parties have been liquidated. More than 50% of non-governmental organizations have been shut down. Gerard Keown emphasized the need to continue pressure on the Lukashenko regime and to support Belarusian democratic forces. He condemned the brutality of the Lukashenko regime and expressed solidarity with the Belarusian people in their fight for democracy, confirming Ireland’s readiness to provide assistance. The representative of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also supported further strengthening sanctions against the Lukashenko regime. Possible next steps to enhance and increase the effectiveness of sanction pressure were discussed during the meeting. Pavel Latushka stated: "Ireland has a completely realistic assessment of the Lukashenko regime, which is an ally of Russia in its aggression against Ukraine. Ireland supports and will continue to support stronger sanctions against the regime unless it stops backing the war against Ukraine. Ireland is also considering ways to support bringing Lukashenko to justice for the crimes he has committed against Belarusians and in relation to the aggression against Ukraine. We also discussed financial support and assistance for Belarusian civil society. Ireland fully understands the importance and priority of supporting independent media and bloggers. I requested that appropriate funds be allocated. Additionally, we talked about the need for financial support for civil initiatives and human rights organizations" . The representative of the Irish Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed interest in organizing a special conference in Ireland dedicated to Belarusian culture and its support.

Jeżeli masz możliwość, to prosimy ewentualnie o przekazanie 1,5% podatku na naszą działalność Białoruską Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. On Lukashenko's "Brilliant" Economic Plans and Their Consequences for His Officials Imagine a country where a dictator demands the impossible: prices for potatoes and cucumbers must freeze, as if by magic, and officials and businessmen must turn the economic chaos into a perfect system of control within a month. Recently, Lukashenko gave another "scolding" to his government, setting a task that sounds like a challenge to the laws of reality. What lies behind this loud directive? Is Belarus really facing an economic breakthrough? Or is this just a prelude to a new wave of repression, where everyone will be blamed except the dictator himself? The unrealistic nature of Lukashenko’s directive to develop a price regulation system by April 2025 creates the groundwork for another round of repression, blame-shifting, and criminal cases, which has become a hallmark of governance in Belarus under the dictator’s rule. Lukashenko has long built a management system where failures to implement his orders are interpreted not as systemic errors or unrealistic tasks, but as personal faults of the officials. The example of the "scolding" of officials over potatoes and cucumbers at the February 28 meeting shows that he tends to look for "scapegoats" even in the smallest details. Lukashenko’s directives are populist in nature (such as ensuring "social standards" through price control) but do not take into account real economic limitations. His demand to finalize the system within a month, including the integration of complex IT platforms, ignores objective difficulties like staff shortages and financial issues. When the deadline is not met, or the system turns out to be unworkable, he will most likely blame officials and businesses for "not wanting to work" or "conspiring against the people". Regional executive committees, ministries, and businesses, as participants in the process, are under strict control and fear. They have no room for open discussions of problems or acknowledging the impossibility of fulfilling the task. Instead, they will try to "squirm" by presenting formal reports, which will only delay the inevitable moment when Lukashenko demands results. A past example: in 2022, after the failure of price regulation, several cases were opened against local officials and company managers for "abuse of power" and "negligence." A similar scenario is likely here. For instance, the First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, despite his loyalty, may become a target if Lukashenko decides that the government "failed." If the system is not ready by April, which is likely given the rush, it could be classified as "treason" or "damaging economic security," which in Belarus is interpreted broadly and harshly.

Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. Lukashenko is preparing a New Experiment on Belarusians What does "de-urbanization" mean according to Lukashenko? And how is his regime similar to the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia? The Belarusian authorities have come up with yet another "brilliant" plan — this time, they have decided to de-urbanizethe country. In simple terms, this means moving people from cities to villages. According to Lukashenko’s so-called Minister of Architecture and Construction, Ruslan Parkhamovich, the concept of de-urbanization is already in its final stages of development. The regime claims that Belarus needs to be de-urbanized to reduce the outflow of labor to big cities and encourage people to return to villages and small towns. But in reality, behind these words about de-urbanization lies nothing more than Lukashenko’s attempt to turn the entire country into one giant collective farm, which is how he envisions his ideal Belarus. His so-called Minister of Architecture and Construction, Ruslan Parkhamovich, seriously claims that de-urbanization will create "comfortable living conditions" in small towns and villages. But what exactly does this mean? Moving people from cities to villages (but how exactly?). Revitalizing rural areas (but with what resources?). Renovating old houses (but with what funding?). So far, the authorities haven’t officially presented the de-urbanization concept. Should we worry? Yes, we should. We are not living in the Middle Ages. The whole world is moving toward urbanization, not the other way around, because cities are the centers of growth, innovation, and progress. In cities, people have better living conditions, better access to education, healthcare, jobs, technology, and culture. The success of countries like the USA, Germany, South Korea, and many others is largely built on the development of cities. Why? Because economies grow in cities. Cities concentrate enterprises, industries, startups, and financial centers. Small and medium-sized businesses thrive in cities because they have more customers and a higher-income population. Cities offer career growth because there are actual opportunities for it. Villages do not provide the same opportunities—not because rural life is inherently bad, but because progress is moving in a different direction, and fighting against it is simply irrational. Modern cities are hubs of science, technology, and innovation. Universities, research centers, and IT companies are all based in cities. The best hospitals, clinics, and highly qualified doctors are found in cities. The service sector in cities is significantly better than in rural areas. Even in Belarusian cities — despite mass repression and the exodus of professionals — the level of services, medicine, and opportunities is still higher than in rural areas. One could go on, but any rational person understands that de-urbanization is a step backward, both for the country’s development and for its people. And when dictatorships start talking about de-urbanization, what they really mean is: More control over society by isolating more people from quality education, technology, and career prospects. Cutting people off from social connections and access to information by limiting modern communication. Keeping citizens fully dependent on the regime by restricting their exposure to the outside world. This is exactly what Lukashenko is offering Belarusians.

The Treaty between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees within the Union State  was signed in Minsk on December 6, 2024, by Putin and Lukashenko and was ratified almost simultaneously by the parliaments of both Belarus and Russia on February 26, 2025. The Union agreements oblige Minsk to coordinate its foreign and defense policies with Russia. The signed treaty on security guarantees formalizes mutual defense obligations but, de facto, grants Moscow the right to intervene if the regime in Belarus is under threat. A closer analysis of this treaty reveals its significant implications: Article 2, Paragraph 1,  establishes the integrity of the defense space of the Union State, effectively reducing Belarus’ military sovereignty to a minimum and integrating it as an element in the realization of Russia’s geopolitical military objectives. Article 2, Paragraph 2, states that "the parties undertake... to take appropriate actions in the political, military, and other spheres in cases of encroachments on the security of either party or the Union State as a whole" . Such encroachments include "the creation or implementation of a threat to the sovereignty, independence, and/or constitutional order of the Parties" , and those responsible for such threats include terrorist and extremist organizations and groups.  Given the regime’s broad interpretation of any political, social, or informational activity that does not align with its policies as extremist, this clause effectively allows Russia to interfere in Belarus’ domestic political affairs. As a result, Belarus risks losing control even over internal aspects of its national security. Article 4, Paragraph 2 , lays the groundwork for justifying aggressive actions against other states. It states that "in the event of an act of aggression... against one of the Parties or an imminent threat thereof, the other Party guarantees... the immediate provision of necessary military, military-technical, and other assistance, upon agreement between the heads of state and following an official request from the affected Party". The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2024 was justified on the grounds of an alleged imminent threat from Ukraine. A similar scenario could now be repeated, potentially not only against Ukraine but also against EU and NATO member states. A key article  in terms of creating threats to Belarus’ and Russia’s neighbors is Article 5 , which states that "in accordance with separate agreements... military and other facilities of the Russian Federation may be established on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, and Russian military formations may also be deployed there" . This means that Russia can ensure a unilateral and extensive (without reciprocal obligations from Russia) military presence in Belarus on a permanent basis, effectively establishing a western front along Belarus’ borders with the EU and Ukraine. For example, after the "Zapad-2025" exercises, part of the Russian armed forces could remain in Belarus under the provisions of Articles 5 and/or 4 of the treaty. Article 6  addresses the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, including those deployed on Belarusian territory. Paragraph 2  states that "nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation may be used in response to the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction against either Party, as well as in the event of aggression against either Party with conventional weapons that create a critical threat to its sovereignty or territorial integrity" . Russian tactical nuclear warheads are already stationed in Belarus by mutual agreement, and in the future, Moscow could increase their number or deploy new delivery systems (for example, the "Oreshnik" missile complexes that Lukashenko has publicly requested). Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine has already extended the "nuclear umbrella" to Belarus, equating an attack on Belarus to an attack on Russia with the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike. Thus, this treaty aligns with Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine. The provisions of this article potentially create the risk of a retaliatory nuclear strike against Belarusian territory. It is important to note that Article 7  pays special attention to one of the most effective non-military measures against dictators and aggressors—sanctions. The treaty states that "any Party may initiate the consideration of collective countermeasures against such restrictive measures, including mutual support in implementing state economic policies..." This suggests that Lukashenko may once again seek additional resources from the Kremlin, citing sanctions pressure and the provisions of this treaty. Conclusion The military-political integration of Belarus and Russia has fundamentally changed the regional security landscape. Belarus, once a relatively neutral neighbor to Europe, has become an accomplice in Russia’s military policies , contributing to regional instability. Its participation in the aggression against Ukraine serves as a clear example. Strengthening military ties with Moscow has provided Lukashenko’s regime with security guarantees on Kremlin’s terms, but in return, Belarus has become even more dependent on assisting Russia in achieving its geopolitical objectives. The country’s military sovereignty has significantly weakened to the point where Belarus can no longer conduct an independent foreign and defense policy. Russia’s military border has effectively moved closer to NATO’s borders . The military-political integration of Russia and Belarus has led to the creation of a unified defense architecture covering much of Eastern Europe, increasing potential threats to NATO and exacerbating tensions around Ukraine. The continuation of this course risks further escalation — from the deployment of new weapons systems (including nuclear) to the possible complete loss of Belarus’ sovereignty. This is an extremely concerning trend for regional stability. The international community, including European states, will have to contend with a new level of military cohesion between Belarus and Russia, necessitating the development of measures to prevent further potential acts of aggression. In this context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s  statement at the Munich Security Conference about the need to establish a security line in Europe, including along Belarus’ eastern border, is particularly significant. It is crucial for the EU and Belarus’ neighboring countries to develop a strategy aimed at supporting anti-war sentiment within Belarusian society and fostering its democratic aspirations.

Deputy Head of the Cabinet, Pavel Latushka, met with the Ambassador of France to Poland, Étienne de Poncins. Photo: NAU Media In recent days, the Deputy Head of the Cabinet has held meetings with the ambassadors of Latvia, Lithuania, and France. The main objectives of these meetings: Support from the EU for independent Belarusian media and bloggers who counteract propaganda in Belarus; Consideration of the interests of Belarusian civil society in the development of the European security strategy; Support for Belarusian democratic institutions as a real alternative to the Lukashenko regime. Pavel Latushka stated: "A strong Europe will be able to speak to Lukashenko’s regime in the language of power—the only language he understands. A strong Europe is additional support for Belarusians fighting for democracy and freedom. In the context of the suspension of U.S. support, it is particularly important to keep assistance to Belarusian society among the key priorities of European policy. Given the plans to develop a European security strategy, it is crucial to include in this document support for democratic institutions, media, bloggers, and, in general, Belarusian civil society, which seeks to restore democracy and freedom in Belarus and continues to fight for the country's independence". Pavel Latushka thanked the EU ambassadors for adopting a strong sanctions package, emphasizing that sanctions are one of the pressure tools aimed at forcing the regime to make changes in its domestic and foreign policy, specifically: Ending mass repression and releasing political prisoners; Ceasing support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; Halting the hybrid war against the EU using illegal migrants. During the meetings, the Joint Transitional Cabinet’s statement on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine was also presented. The importance of further assistance to Ukraine and support for the Belarusian people’s aspirations for a free and independent Belarus was emphasized.

Pavel Pavlovich Latushka:  Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the UTC for the Transfer of Power. Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the faction "Latushka Team and Movement 'For Freedom'" within the 3rd Convocation of the Coordination Council. How Will the U.S. React to This Cooperation, and What Consequences Await Lukashenko? In recent years, dictator Lukashenko has continued to build ties with autocratic regimes, turning Belarus into part of a global anti-democratic coalition. Among his partners are Libya, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, and, of course, Cuba. How will Washington respond to Minsk and Havana's cooperation? How does the Trump administration view it? Will new U.S. sanctions target Lukashenko’s regime? The answers to these questions are in today’s report. Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State On January 1, 2025, Lukashenko stated that "Minsk has always been and remains a reliable ally of Havana, ready to lend a helping hand in difficult times" . The two countries have maintained diplomatic relations for a long time, but the past two years have shown that their cooperation goes beyond traditional trade and humanitarian exchanges. At the core of this partnership, military cooperation is becoming increasingly evident, posing a serious threat to democratic nations, including the U.S. and its allies. Let’s not forget that the current U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is the son of Cuban immigrants and a fierce opponent of the communist regime of the Castro brothers. Vitaly Borchuk, Lukashenko’s Ambassador to Cuba Today, it became known that Lukashenko’s newly appointed ambassador to Cuba, Vitaly Borchuk, has presented his credentials to the Cuban president. Borchuk’s military background makes this appointment particularly noteworthy. From 1995 to 2013, he served in the Belarusian Armed Forces. Between 2013 and 2015, he worked for Beltechexport, one of Belarus's leading arms exporters, which is already under U.S. and EU sanctions. By 2018, Borchuk was listed as the director of Innovative Company INTES LLC , a distributor and integrator of security, management, and automation systems. From 2021 to 2025, he worked at the Ministry of Industry and Lukashenko's government apparatus, overseeing foreign economic relations. Given his background, Borchuk’s appointment as ambassador to Cuba is no coincidence — and here’s why. Military Contacts: What Lies Behind the Rhetoric of Friendship? Officially, Lukashenko and Cuban authorities speak of strengthening economic cooperation and cultural exchange. However, real interactions reveal a different picture. June 2023 — A Cuban military delegation visited Minsk for talks with the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. Among the topics discussed: technology exchange in the arms sector and joint projects to modernize military equipment. January 2024 — Lukashenko’s Minister of Defense, Viktor Khrenin, visited Cuba. The official press was reserved, only reporting that Havana and Minsk had agreed on a "technical cooperation" program under which Belarus could supply military products to Cuba. The contents of this military cooperation agreement were not disclosed. However, Khrenin received an award from Cuban Defense Minister Álvaro López. Shortly afterward, the ministry led by Khrenin announced that the Castro regime in Havana was interested in purchasing Polonez-M  missile systems from Belarus, with a range of 300 km. The distance between Cuba and the U.S. at the narrowest point of the Florida Strait is just 180 km . This weapon is produced using Chinese rockets. At the time, BELTA  confirmed that the arms deal was part of a broader bilateral plan between the dictatorial regimes in Cuba and Belarus. April 2024 — The commander of the Cuban Air Force and Air Defense arrived in Minsk with a large military delegation. Cuban communists held talks with Andrei Lukyanovich, commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces. The Belarusian Defense Ministry vaguely stated that "a detailed exchange of views took place on the further development of cooperation" . July 2024 — Cuban Defense Minister Álvaro López paid a return visit to Minsk. At the military exhibition welcoming the Cuban delegation, the Belarusian Defense Ministry showcased Chinese-made Dajiang special forces jeeps equipped with machine guns, communication devices, and drones. That same month, Lukashenko’s Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko visited Cuba, where he met with Raúl Castro. Cuban Defense Minister Álvaro López was present at the meeting. Finally, in December 2024, a Belarusian military delegation led by General Lukyanovich paid a working visit to Cuba. "The parties discussed the state and prospects for the development of bilateral military cooperation, primarily in the field of the Air Force and Air Defense, and also noted the similarity of Belarus and Cuba's positions on key international security issues" , the Belarusian Ministry of Defense's press service reported. January 2025 – The Head of the Department of International Military Cooperation of the Belarusian Defense Ministry, Major General Valery Revenko, met with Cuban Ambassador Santiago Pérez Benítez. The meeting resulted in the accreditation of Cuba’s military, naval, and air attachés in Belarus. For the first time, Cuba has established a military attaché office in Minsk. How Will the U.S. React? The United States has traditionally viewed Cuba as a source of threat in the Western Hemisphere. After the fall of the USSR, Cuba reduced its military ambitions, but now, with the support of regimes like Lukashenko's, it may once again pose a danger. Washington has long kept Belarus on its sanctions list, but Lukashenko’s new military cooperation with Cuba could lead to tighter American restrictions. On January 30, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, stated: "Mass migration has destabilized our entire region… The illegitimate regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are deliberately fueling chaos. Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party is using diplomatic and economic leverage, such as in the Panama Canal, to counter the U.S. and turn sovereign nations into vassal states". It is worth noting that the Lukashenko regime has been using migration warfare against Europe as a weapon for several years now. The U.S. has also faced similar issues in recent years. Why Is Cooperation with Cuba Beneficial for Lukashenko? For Lukashenko, this partnership brings several advantages: Sanctions Evasion: Cuba has long specialized in shadow financial schemes, which could help Minsk acquire restricted technologies or even export Belarusian goods through third countries. Political Legitimization: Lukashenko seeks to show that he is not isolated but is instead "strengthening international cooperation" — even if it is with countries like Cuba. Support from the Kremlin or even Beijing: Russia actively encourages the Belarus-Cuba alliance, as it opens new channels for Moscow’s influence in Latin America. Meanwhile, China, through Lukashenko’s regime, may quietly expand its presence in Cuba. What Does Russia Gain from This? Russia views Cuba as a key element in its regional strategy. Strengthening ties between Belarus and Cuba provides Moscow with: Additional logistical channels: Cuba could become another hub for shipping Russian and Belarusian goods in defiance of Western sanctions. Expanded military presence: Russia could use Cuba for intelligence operations and to increase pressure on the U.S. A political comeback: Moscow is eager to restore its influence in Latin America, and Belarus serves as a convenient tool for this. Finally, Russia has been recruiting Cubans to fight in Ukraine since the spring of 2023. In the fall of that year, Cuban authorities announced that they had uncovered a recruitment network on the island. Researchers estimate that around 5,000 Cubans may currently be fighting on Russia’s side. Why Is This Bad for Belarusians? Unlike Lukashenko, the Belarusian people gain nothing from this cooperation. For example, in 2022, trade turnover with Cuba amounted to just under $13 million. Instead, the consequences for Belarus could be catastrophic: Even greater isolation: Western sanctions will only intensify. Increased military spending: Lukashenko is willing to allocate state resources to dubious military projects instead of investing in the economy and social services. Risk of involvement in geopolitical conflicts: If Belarus assists Cuba militarily, it could provoke retaliatory measures from the U.S., further escalating tensions. Which Countries Will Take Notice and React to Lukashenko's Partnership with Cuba? The U.S. — As Cuba’s main opponent, Washington should increase scrutiny of Minsk-Havana ties, expand sanctions, and block any military cooperation attempts. China — Beijing has traditionally supported Cuba but prioritizes stability and control over its partners. Excessive Russian influence on the island might eventually displease China, creating opportunities for diplomatic maneuvering. Latin American countries — Democratic governments in the region should recognize that the Cuba-Belarus-Russia alliance threatens regional stability. The Threat to Democracy Demands a Strong Response Lukashenko’s cooperation with Cuba is not just a diplomatic formality. It is part of a global alliance of dictatorships that threatens the security of the democratic world. The deeper Lukashenko entangles Belarus in a military-political partnership with Cuba, the greater the risks for stability not only in Europe but also in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S., its allies, and the democratic nations of Latin America must act now to disrupt the Kremlin’s plans and its puppet, Lukashenko. Belarus must not become another launchpad for anti-democratic regimes or a facilitator of global instability.