Lukashenko Lends to Russia While Belarus Drowns – Kallaur’s Resignation as a Symptom of Crisis
On March 10, 2025, Lukashenko dismissed Pavel Kallaur, the head of the National Bank, who had held the position for over ten years. This decision shocked the country’s banking system. Why was a true professional fired during such a difficult time? One of the reasons for Kallaur’s dismissal was his disagreement with the policy of granting loans to Russian companies at the end of 2024.
Not long ago, I addressed Pavel Kallaur with a suggestion to go to Lukashenko and propose disconnecting Belarusian banks from Russia’s Central Bank’s Financial Messaging System — Russia’s equivalent of SWIFT. But just days ago, Lukashenko fired Kallaur from his post. Let’s try to understand why Lukashenko dismissed Kallaur and what Belarusian loans to Russia have to do with it.
Kallaur was one of the few officials in the regime who, apart from serving the dictator, tried to think about the interests of Belarus as a state.
It is known that Russia, like Lukashenko’s regime, faced a series of European and American sanctions due to its actions, losing a significant portion of financial resources for developing primarily its military-industrial complex, which is critically important for continuing the war. The question arose of how to compensate for these losses.
It is often said that Russia compensates Lukashenko’s regime for its losses from the imposed sanctions. Yes, that is true, but it’s not that simple. There is also a reverse process at play.
So, let’s look at how Lukashenko’s regime compensates Russia for the losses it faces due to the war and sanctions.
While Lukashenko demands that officials save every penny and Belarusian citizens work three or four jobs, he himself is squandering the country’s resources to support someone else’s war.
At the end of 2024, Belarusian banks issued loans to Russian companies worth half a billion dollars. These aren’t just numbers — it’s a story about how the dictator is selling the future of his citizens to preserve his throne.
This money could have gone to schools, hospitals, or roads in Belarus itself, but instead, it is supporting the Russian economy — a country that is waging war against Ukraine. Lukashenko’s regime, desperately clinging to power, is turning Belarus into a financial cushion for Moscow, sacrificing the well-being of the Belarusian people. And Kallaur apparently disagreed with this, which is why he paid the price.
But why did Belarusian banks become a lifeline for Russia?
The issue lies in the difference in interest rates: in Russia, the discount rate reached 21% in 2024, while in Belarus it remained at 9.5%. For Russian companies, which are suffocating under sanctions and high interest rates, Belarusian loans are a cheap loophole. In December 2024, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Belarusbank and Belagroprombank provided Russian enterprises with no less than $500 million.
These banks, like the entire banking system, have long been fully subordinated to the interests of Lukashenko, who has been mocking the country for decades. After the 2020 protests and the start of the war in Ukraine, the West imposed strict sanctions on Lukashenko’s regime, cutting it off from European markets. By 2024, the country's economy continues to stagnate. Moscow uses Belarus as a workaround for sanctions, and now as a source of cheap financing. But while Lukashenko publicly demands that officials “find money and investment,” his personal actions say the opposite: he is handing out Belarusian resources, leaving his own country with empty pockets.
Economy to Retain Power
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service states: “Belarusian banks are effectively financing the Russian economy, including the war against Ukraine.” These are not empty words. Half a billion dollars is a significant sum for Belarus’ banking system, whose resources have been depleted by sanctions and internal crises. In 2024, the National Bank of Belarus set the average loan rate for businesses at 8.5%, but access to these funds for local businesses sharply decreased. Why? Because priority is given to Russian borrowers, who bring political dividends to Lukashenko.
This decision undermines the Belarusian economy on all fronts.
Firstly, the outflow of money abroad leaves local businesses with no chance of development. Secondly, it contributes to slowing down economic growth and may also spur inflation: in 2024, food prices already significantly increased, and this trend accelerated in January-February 2025. Thirdly, it undermines the stability of Belarus’ banking system: if Russia does not repay its debts — a high risk given its own problems — Belarusian banks will be on the brink of crisis.
Lukashenko, however, demonstrates stunning hypocrisy. He periodically scolds officials for “wasting money,” demanding they save the budget and attract investment. But issuing $500 million to Russia in December is not saving — it’s squandering resources for the Kremlin. His goal is clear: to strengthen the alliance with Moscow to maintain support without which his regime would collapse. However, this strategy condemns Belarus to be a donor, not a partner, draining the last of the country’s strength.
Life of Belarusians Under Pressure
Imagine an average Belarusian, who has a small business, such as a clothing store, barely staying afloat, and is denied a loan by a bank, citing “limited resources.” Meanwhile, Russian companies that received Belarusian loans continue production — including military equipment that is used to shell Ukrainian cities. For small business owners like him, this is not just an economic downturn — it’s the loss of hope for a normal life while Lukashenko gives their money away abroad.
Lukashenko Against His People
Lukashenko constantly sells the future of Belarus to save himself. By giving loans to Russian companies, he is not only supporting the war in Ukraine — he is condemning his country to poverty and backwardness. The half a billion dollars that left in December 2024 for Russia are stolen opportunities for Belarusian families, factories, and cities. While he demands that officials save every penny, he himself is squandering the country’s resources as if they mean nothing.
His fear of losing power has turned Belarus into a hostage of the Kremlin, and its people into victims of a political game. Lukashenko continues to dance on the edge of the abyss, not noticing that he is dragging the entire country down with him. The only question is how long the people will continue to pay for his fear — and when they will decide that enough is enough. And that will surely happen.
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