The answer, according to an expert, is simple: "This is the Kremlin's strategy."
Source: Gazeta Wyborcza
"Lukashenko holds weekly meetings with around 40 military personnel, including representatives from six different special agencies. We know that in a recent meeting, he issued orders to escalate operations on the Polish border," Pavel Latushka, the former Belarusian Ambassador in Poland, states.
This article delves into the crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border with insights from Pavel Latushka, a leading Belarusian opposition figure.
Anna Mikulska: Let's start from the beginning, back in August 2021, when people began appearing at the border, specifically in Usnarz Górny, seeking international protection. It's crucial to acknowledge that migration is a natural phenomenon; people are trying to reach Europe through various means, primarily across the Mediterranean. However, the migration route along our eastern border is distinct—it was artificially engineered by Alexander Lukashenko, who exploited this inherent human need to migrate. Why did he choose this course of action?
Pavel Latushka: Lukashenko, in concert with Putin, made a calculated decision to exert pressure not solely on the Belarusian-Polish border, but on the broader Belarusian-European border. Lukashenko sought retribution for Europe's refusal to recognize the results of the fraudulent 2020 presidential election. Putin, on the other hand, aimed to gauge NATO's response to a crisis unfolding on its periphery.
Today, we understand that this was merely the first phase of the Kremlin's strategy, a strategy that already encompassed plans for an offensive against Ukraine.
Anna Mikulska: We'll delve into that strategy in more detail later, but first, let's clarify how these foreign nationals were transported to Belarus.
Pavel Latushka: Russia provided the financial backing for the infrastructure that facilitated the sale of visas, airline tickets, and air transportation to Minsk. Designated Belarusian consulates and embassies were tasked with issuing visas. This entire operation unfolded with the full knowledge and consent of both dictators.
Migrants arriving in Minsk were granted Belarusian visas upon arrival, thanks to a dedicated consular office operating at the airport. To streamline this process, travel agencies were established, profiting from these foreigners while channeling funds into the coffers of Lukashenko's regime.
Anna Mikulska: In the early days of the crisis, there was talk of "Operation Lockdown." Is this still relevant?
Pavel Latushka: The operation's codename has evolved alongside the nationalities of the migrants and the shifting objectives of Russia and Belarus. Today, we refer to it as "Operation Tide." However, the underlying actions remain unchanged—funneling foreign nationals toward the EU's external borders.
Anna Mikulska: So, let's get back to the Kremlin's strategy.
Pavel Latushka: Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the migration crisis assumed a new and distinct purpose. The initial phase, as we discussed, has run its course. Today, the escalation in migration is designed to strain the resources of Belarus' neighboring countries—nations that are also NATO members—forcing them to divert resources away from aiding Ukraine and toward bolstering their own defenses and border security. This deliberate stimulation of activity along the migration route also aims to sow discord within Western societies and erode their support for Ukraine.
Anna Mikulska: It's not just the migrants' roles that have shifted, but their routes as well. We're seeing them arrive not just from the Middle East, but also from African countries like Eritrea and Ethiopia. It seems Putin and Lukashenko have shifted their focus for issuing visas. And instead of flying directly to Minsk, these individuals are now routed through Russia. What does their route look like next?
Pavel Latushka: Migrants reach the border with Belarus, and that’s when Lukashenko assumes responsibility for them. They're then transported by bus to the borders of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.
Anna Mikulska: So, to be clear, Lukashenko and his special forces are directly responsible for these migrants. But what specific roles do they play?
Pavel Latushka: The State Border Committee's OSAM special unit is tasked with transporting migrants to the border. Lukashenko issues orders directly to this unit, sometimes through his son, Viktor. They organize the logistics, force migrants across the border, and create diversions to distract Polish authorities.
OSAM personnel are also in contact with their counterparts across the border, who facilitate the migrants' onward journey westward and even provide them with tools to breach border barriers. Overseeing this entire operation is the Belarusian KGB.
Anna Mikulska: The KGB, which is currently headed by Ivan Tertel, a staunch Lukashenko loyalist.
Pavel Latushka: Tertel ensures the smooth and uninterrupted flow of migrants, shielding them from interference, even from the Belarusian Ministry of Internal Affairs. He unquestioningly carries out Lukashenko's directives, regardless of their legality.
And legality is a bit of a moot point in Belarus these days. But it's interesting that Lukashenko avoids formally signing any decrees related to the border migrants. There's no paper trail directly linking him to these actions, despite his public endorsement of them.
Instead of official documentation, Lukashenko relies on near-weekly meetings with representatives from the special services. In a recent meeting, he ordered an intensification of pressure on the border with Poland.
Anna Mikulska: Why now?
Pavel Latushka: There are likely two key reasons. Firstly, Lukashenko is averse to deploying the Belarusian army into Ukraine. By instigating a border conflict, he serves his own interests, demonstrating his value to Putin and positioning his forces as a necessary bulwark against a potential NATO counteroffensive—a highly unlikely scenario.
Secondly, Russia has escalated its offensive in Ukraine. As we've discussed, Russia seeks to destabilize Europe, diverting resources away from Ukraine and towards internal security concerns.
Anna Mikulska: And we are seeing the effects of this heightened activity in the increasing frequency of attacks launched from Belarusian territory. One such attack tragically claimed the life of a young Polish soldier, 21-year-old Mateusz Sitek. Do we know who was behind this attack?
Pavel Latushka: It's important to recognize that we're dealing with a mix of individuals at the border. There are those who are completely unaware of what awaits them, simply seeking a new life in Europe...
Anna Mikulska: It's crucial to remember that these individuals retain the right to seek international protection. However, the EU's restrictive visa policies often deny them legal avenues to reach safety, essentially closing off those pathways.
Pavel Latushka: We're seeing a range of actors involved in this situation. There are those desperate enough to risk the journey despite the dangers. Then there are individuals recruited and paid by Russia and the Lukashenko regime specifically to sow chaos at the border. Furthermore, we cannot discount the potential involvement of intelligence operatives from both countries, including elements of the Wagner Group still operating in Belarus.
Regarding the tragic death of the Polish soldier, our sources indicate that the KGB has a specialized unit known as "Alpha" trained in knife combat. OSAM, too, has a similarly trained unit called "Division C." The nature of the attack points to a professionally executed operation. However, we cannot yet definitively identify the individual responsible.
Anna Mikulska: Humanitarian groups often reference a "system" operating within this border zone. Could you shed light on the nature of this zone and the situation of migrants in this zone?
Pavel Latushka: This so-called "system," the border zone controlled by Belarus, is a remnant of the Soviet era. While originally intended as a fortified boundary, it has been effectively repurposed by the Lukashenko regime into a corridor for human smuggling. Rather than securing the border, Belarusian border guards facilitate the movement of migrants towards Poland, enabling them to violate it. This is not simply a failure of border security but a deliberate policy orchestrated by Lukashenko and his enablers.
We also know that migrants are often beaten on the Belarusian side and forced to cross the border. While some are persistent in their attempts to cross, others simply want to escape the situation, only to be coerced into further attempts by the Belarusian special services.
Anna Mikulska: What solutions do you see to resolve the crisis at the border?
Pavel Latushka: There are no easy answers. However, we know that dictators respond to displays of strength. While a military intervention is out of the question, we must consider impactful measures. Closing the railway crossings with Belarus, for instance, would directly impact the financial interests of both Lukashenko and China, potentially destabilizing his regime. This would be a difficult decision, but it could force China to exert pressure on Lukashenko to change his tactics.
Secondly, the EU must strengthen and harmonize sanctions against both Belarus and Russia. Currently, the existing sanctions are porous, allowing Putin to circumvent them by funneling goods through Belarus.
Poland also has tools at its disposal. National sanctions could target businesses and individuals complicit in Lukashenko's regime. It is deeply concerning that Polish banks continue to conduct business with Belarusian entities while ordinary Belarusian citizens face account closures in Poland.
Furthermore, it's important to remember that a criminal case has been underway in Lublin since 2021, investigating the Lukashenko regime's role in orchestrating this hybrid attack. Arrest warrants could be issued for those responsible for manufacturing this migration crisis.
Finally, Poland should formally request that the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigate Alexander Lukashenko for crimes against humanity and issue a warrant for his arrest. Our team has compiled substantial evidence; what is needed now is decisive action.
Anna Mikulska: Despite the crisis at the border, Poland has not ceased economic relations with Belarus. Polish exports to its eastern neighbor in 2023 reached a staggering 2.7 billion euros, primarily comprising vehicles, machinery, and imported wood. While financial turnover has decreased, it still amounts to millions.
Pavel Latushka: This is precisely why we advocate for halting trade with Lukashenko's regime. Instead, Poland should impose targeted sanctions on members of his inner circle. As for the dictator himself, the evidence clearly indicates that he should be held accountable by the International Criminal Court.
Anna Mikulska: Although it receives less attention now, Belarusian citizens continue to face daily detentions and politically motivated prosecutions.
Pavel Latushka: We consistently raise awareness about these human rights violations within the international community. We accuse the Belarusian dictator of crimes against humanity. The current wave of repression is the most severe in the past 50 years, reaching appalling levels.
We recently held elections to the Belarusian proto-parliament in exile. All 257 individuals who ran for this body in exile were subsequently charged under the Criminal Code, their property confiscated, and in some cases, family members detained. We are witnessing torture in prisons, total censorship, and over 1,400 individuals designated as political prisoners, though the actual number is likely far higher. These political prisoners are subjected to solitary confinement in inhumane conditions, deprived of basic necessities and contact with the outside world. Even the elderly and individuals battling cancer are not spared this cruelty.
Anna Mikulska: How can persecuted Belarusians escape the country?
Pavel Latushka: The border with Ukraine is currently sealed, rendering that route impassable. Fortunately, due to the diplomatic efforts of Lithuania, Poland, and other nations, Belarusians can seek humanitarian visas, though they risk retaliation from the regime. It's crucial to understand that Belarus is rapidly descending into an isolated state, akin to North Korea, and this is unfolding within Europe, right next to Poland.
Russia aims to reshape Belarusian society. However, recent studies reveal that 66 percent of Belarusian citizens support democracy, and a resounding 98 percent desire to live in an independent nation. Therefore, a unified and multifaceted strategy between the EU and Poland is essential, one that distinguishes between the Lukashenko regime and the Belarusian people. Failure to do so risks replacing the border with Belarus with a border with Russia.
Pavel Latushka is a Belarusian politician, diplomat, former Ambassador of Belarus to Poland, and former Minister of Culture. He is a prominent leader of the Belarusian opposition and a leading voice against the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.
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