In the case of Lukashenka's sudden departure, there will be challenges of an internal and external nature
Internally, a group of the so-called elite close to Lukashenko will try to hold onto power in order to prevent them from being punished for the crimes they are committing against the Belarusian people and in connection with the aggression against Ukraine.
On the external front, there will be an attempt at Russian influence, and we can definitely expect that Russia will try to take control of the situation inside Belarus and put its new puppet in power. Such persons may be both the so-called chairman of the Council of the Republic, Natalia Kochanova, and Alexander Volfovich, the so-called secretary of state of the Security Council. They would play a key role in the meetings of the Security Council, which, as a collective body, would practically run the country, and in this body would be dominated by the siloviki, who would most likely choose Volfovich's side.
However, the decisive thing will be the action plan, which includes several conditional "envelopes" that will be opened when this situation arises. It is clear that we cannot ask today about the plans of the AFU — in which direction they are planning the key strike during the counterattack, and it is wrong to voice and reveal today all of our plans, which are prepared and change depending on the development of the situation. Some of them were before the war, others became after the beginning of the Russian aggression with the participation of the Lukashenko regime against Ukraine. Here the key factors will be a strong internal movement, ready for action, and an external force in the form of military units fighting today on the side of Ukraine. And, accordingly, the willingness of partners to allow these forces to intervene on the side of the Belarusian people in order to change the situation in favor of the victory of democratic forces.
It can be predicted that Belarusians, despite the serious demotivation due to the total destruction of civil society and the suppression of protests in the country, are waiting for the day of Lukashenko's departure so much that it will lead to a mass outing of people to the streets and the subsequent shutdown of businesses and institutions in Belarus in many parts of the country, which should play a key role in achieving the goal - a change in the political situation in Belarus.
We have a corresponding basic plan for the mobilization of society at a decisive moment. People within the country should take advantage of such a moment in the first place.
With the understanding that in the event of the dictator's demise before Russia's defeat on the battlefield, our common task will also be to actively resist Russia's attempt to "stabilize" the situation. But these are risks that we all have to be aware of in any case - whether Lukashenko will be alive at moment x (any trigger that will cause a powerful shock within the system, such as a successful counterattack by the AFU and the liberation of Ukrainian territory) or the moment x will be his demise. Russia will not let Belarus go for nothing, unless it starts processes of dismantling the federation within itself.
However, it is impossible to count exclusively on such an outcome. We must all understand that we will have to fight for freedom and independence, as any other country and nation had to do in the history of the world.
Belarusians want to be a free and independent nation and to have a free and independent state. Russia, in fact, denies our right to have such a state and to be an independent nation. And following the ideology of Racism it wants to turn us into the Russians, while Belarus wants to become part of Russia and the "Russian world".
Therefore, in any scenario, the question is this: whose desire and willingness to act accordingly will be stronger.
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