Pavel Latushka spoke to DW about what the Belarusian democratic forces expect from the European Union, why the EU's strategy in 2020 was flawed, and what mistake the West made regarding Lukashenko
Original article: dw.com
At the "Berlin Belarus Future Forum" conference, held on October 14-15 in Berlin, DW's correspondent met with the head of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), Pavel Latushka, to discuss how the European Union and Germany can help the democratic forces and Belarusian society.
DW: We are speaking at the conference in Berlin. It is well known that Germany has long supported democratic Belarus. Can you tell us, what is your request this time?
Pavel Latushka: The Bundestag's adoption of the resolution a year ago was something I viewed very positively at the time. I would go even further — I made many copies of this document and distributed them to numerous parliamentarians in various countries around the world as an example for potential replication. In my opinion, it is a significant document that could form the basis of a real action strategy by the German government. If this strategy were adopted by the entire European Union, it could have a serious impact.
One important realization, as we reflect on the year since the resolution was passed, is that the future of democratic Belarus is incompatible with any appeasement of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime. Having been on the inside of the system, I understand that over these 30 years, we have seen attempts at false narratives by the regime and the repetition of the same cycle — he would make some pseudo-cosmetic concessions, but this led to even more negative consequences, as we see now. I am referring to the thousands of political prisoners, support for the aggression against Ukraine, mass repression within the country, the migration warfare, and so on.
We are talking about the need for proactive actions, not reactive ones. In other words, not when the West lags behind in its response to what is happening in Belarus — unfortunately, that’s what happened in 2020. If there had been a proactive response from the West in 2020, Belarus would be a democratic country today. And even the horrific war that Russia is waging against Ukraine with Lukashenko's regime’s support might still have happened, but it would not have had such severe consequences.
— What do you mean by proactive actions? What kind of response from the European Union was lacking in 2020?
— I remember having many meetings with foreign ministers at the time, including with the Minister of State at the German Foreign Ministry, where I emphasized the need for shocking, rapid sanctions that would simply knock the regime off its feet. We appealed to the Europeans, but sanctions were only adopted months later, and it was a very weak package that, by the way, didn’t even include Lukashenko himself. When speaking to the foreign minister of Sweden at the time, I asked: "Why, why are you not including Lukashenko in the sanctions package?" The response was: "We want to keep the door open for dialogue with Lukashenko". And that was a mistake. With a man who committed crimes, gave orders to kill, shoot at Belarusians, torture them, and imprison thousands, someone still wanted to negotiate?
Therefore, today, we cannot repeat that mistake. What is needed is a proactive strategy, starting with the support of the institutions that the democratic forces have created. We are talking about a proactive strategy to support independent media, Belarusian identity. You cannot close the border to Belarusians; you cannot turn Belarus into North Korea. It is crucial to understand that if today you lock Belarusians within Belarus, it will become North Korea.
I understand the governments of many countries that are investing enormous resources to ensure their own security. If I were a prime minister, I would do the same — I would invest in the safety of my country and my people, because that is my duty. But when we talk about Belarusians, the majority of Belarusians are pro-democratic, they are against Lukashenko, and they are against the war — that’s what distinguishes us from Russia. Today, we need to invest in Belarusian society, because if this is not done, in just a few years, a soldier could appear on the EU’s border — who knows what citizenship they will hold, what uniform they will wear — God forbid it’s a Russian one — but ready to attack the European Union. And this is where a new direction for European strategy needs to be defined — not a pseudo-dialogue with Lukashenko, but support for Belarusian society.
I understand the governments of many countries that are investing enormous resources to ensure their security. If I were the prime minister of a country, I would do the same — I would invest in the safety of my country and my people because that is my duty. But when we talk about Belarusians, the majority of them are pro-democracy, they are against Lukashenko, and they are against the war — that's what sets us apart from Russia. Today, we need to invest in Belarusian society because if this is not done, in just a few years, there could be a soldier standing at the EU's border — it’s unclear what citizenship they will hold or what uniform they will wear — God forbid it's a Russian one — but ready to attack the European Union. And here, a new direction for European strategy must be defined — not a pseudo-dialogue with Lukashenko, but support for Belarusian society.
— It's absolutely clear how to support the Belarusian society in exile. But how can Belarusians inside the country be supported, considering, as you say, that borders are being closed now?
— You know, it's quite symbolic that we are speaking in Berlin, a city where the Berlin Wall once stood. And today, unfortunately, we are witnessing the symbolic construction of such a wall between Belarus and the European Union.
Therefore, the main thing is the issuance of visas, making the visa process as easy as possible. And here there is a conflict, as countries consider their national security when issuing visas, but it still needs to be done.
It is also important not to close border crossings for people so that Belarusians can leave the country. It’s essential to open educational programs, especially in neighboring European countries. Supporting Belarusian identity is crucial — even if, for now, it may be in exile, but thanks to the internet, we have the opportunity to influence. Supporting independent media is vital because Russia is investing billions in trying to change our mentality, to make us Russian, to make us start supporting the war, while the European Union is providing only millions. But this is not about the money; it's about the strategy — we could lose the main war — the war for the minds of Belarusians. This is the internal influence — massive, active support for independent media and all the institutions fighting for change within the country.
This must be a priority, but of course, we should not forget that a large number of Belarusians have already been forced to leave Belarus and are now abroad, where the regime continues to persecute them. I believe it’s important to preserve our national identity here as well, because then we will have a chance that at least 50% of Belarusians will return, and the other 50% will communicate with the future democratic Belarus.
— It was recently reported that Lithuania has submitted a request to the International Criminal Court to investigate the crimes of Lukashenko’s regime against Belarusians. Are there any updates?
— It is very important for us now to continue gathering all possible evidence, which we can then pass on to the Office of the ICC Prosecutor. We will continue to work on this, just as we did when preparing the relevant materials for the Lithuanian government. Therefore, I encourage anyone who is ready to testify about crimes against humanity committed against them or their loved ones to contact us. We will cooperate with human rights organizations and the International Accountability Platform, which operates in Denmark.
The second area of work is very complex and painstaking — advocating among partner countries. We are engaged in such advocacy during our meetings with the German foreign minister, the German justice minister, and in the Bundestag. We are also discussing this with the Polish side and with all the Scandinavian countries. We had a closed briefing on the matter. This means that we will be conducting painstaking advocacy to ensure that these countries join Lithuania's appeal to the ICC to address the situation in Belarus regarding crimes against humanity.
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