Pavel Pavlovich Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet for Power Transition. Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and For Freedom Movement" fraction in the 3rd Convocation Coordination Council
Recently, Lukashenko's Foreign Minister, Maxim Ryzhenkov, stated that the regime, having fallen out with the West, is now turning more towards countries of the "global majority," developing cooperation with the likes of China and Iran. But is this really the case? And what is the situation in Belarus's foreign trade?
Did Lukashenko's trips to China, Mongolia, Pakistan, Oman, the UAE, and Zimbabwe bring any practical results?
It appears not. Despite numerous statements about "all-weather cooperation", the actual volume of trade with China remains disproportionate to the ambitions. The main exports from Belarus to China are potash fertilizers, timber, and agro-industrial products. However, after sanctions and the reorientation of logistics, China has not increased purchases of Belarusian goods to a level that could compensate for the losses from issues on the western front. Moreover, global prices for Belarus's key export items, like potash, are falling. China is also increasing its shipments to Belarus, displacing domestic producers from their own market.
As for Mongolia, Pakistan, Oman, the UAE, and Zimbabwe, while these countries are important in terms of symbolic diplomacy, they do not have sufficient economic potential to significantly increase trade with Belarus. For example, the African continent accounts for less than 2% of Belarus's foreign exports.
Lukashenko's visits were more image-oriented and personal in nature rather than having practical significance, and the agreements made are either not being implemented or are realized in minimal volumes. This is also confirmed by Belstat data. From January to November 2024, Belarus's export outside the CIS fell by 7.4% compared to the same period last year.
As a result, from January to November 2024, the negative trade balance with countries outside the CIS reached almost 7 billion US dollars. Excluding Russia and other CIS countries, Belarus exports nearly half as much abroad as it imports from there.
Covering the losses in foreign markets entirely through Russia has also not been possible so far. According to the latest data, imports are growing three times faster than Belarusian exports, even though the regime is trying to extend old prohibitions and introduce new ones. In particular, Lukashenko's government has extended the "counter-sanctions," i.e., the ban on the import of certain consumer goods from so-called "unfriendly" countries, including cosmetics, clothing, and footwear, until the end of 2025.
The negative trade balance of goods in Belarus has reached a massive 4.2 billion US dollars.
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