On Lukashenko's "Brilliant" Economic Plans and Their Consequences for His Officials
Imagine a country where a dictator demands the impossible: prices for potatoes and cucumbers must freeze, as if by magic, and officials and businessmen must turn the economic chaos into a perfect system of control within a month. Recently, Lukashenko gave another "scolding" to his government, setting a task that sounds like a challenge to the laws of reality.
What lies behind this loud directive? Is Belarus really facing an economic breakthrough? Or is this just a prelude to a new wave of repression, where everyone will be blamed except the dictator himself?
The unrealistic nature of Lukashenko’s directive to develop a price regulation system by April 2025 creates the groundwork for another round of repression, blame-shifting, and criminal cases, which has become a hallmark of governance in Belarus under the dictator’s rule.
Lukashenko has long built a management system where failures to implement his orders are interpreted not as systemic errors or unrealistic tasks, but as personal faults of the officials. The example of the "scolding" of officials over potatoes and cucumbers at the February 28 meeting shows that he tends to look for "scapegoats" even in the smallest details.
Lukashenko’s directives are populist in nature (such as ensuring "social standards" through price control) but do not take into account real economic limitations. His demand to finalize the system within a month, including the integration of complex IT platforms, ignores objective difficulties like staff shortages and financial issues. When the deadline is not met, or the system turns out to be unworkable, he will most likely blame officials and businesses for "not wanting to work" or "conspiring against the people".
Regional executive committees, ministries, and businesses, as participants in the process, are under strict control and fear. They have no room for open discussions of problems or acknowledging the impossibility of fulfilling the task. Instead, they will try to "squirm" by presenting formal reports, which will only delay the inevitable moment when Lukashenko demands results.
A past example: in 2022, after the failure of price regulation, several cases were opened against local officials and company managers for "abuse of power" and "negligence." A similar scenario is likely here. For instance, the First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, despite his loyalty, may become a target if Lukashenko decides that the government "failed."
If the system is not ready by April, which is likely given the rush, it could be classified as "treason" or "damaging economic security," which in Belarus is interpreted broadly and harshly.
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