Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador
We've recently observed a decline in illegal border crossings from Belarus into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. This follows an ultimatum issued to the Lukashenko regime by Poland. The ultimatum was voiced by the Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski on June 23rd.
Did Lukashenko back down?
The issue was further amplified during Polish President Andrzej Duda's visit to China. In response, Beijing issued a statement urging all parties to engage in dialogue. Let's leave aside the explanation why negotiations are not needed here. What's truly needed is a unilateral cessation of the Lukashenko regime's border weaponization. Nevertheless, China's statement, though framed diplomatically, reveals their underlying displeasure with the situation.
Our sources indicate that Lukashenko has held three meetings, including a security council session, to assess the potential economic fallout from a border closure with the EU.
It's worth noting that Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski publicly acknowledged my stance on this matter, advocating for stringent measures like closing border crossings to trade while simultaneously ensuring Belarusian citizens retain access to the EU.
Incidentally, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski published a tweet referencing my comments to the publication "Fakty," where I emphasized our support for exerting maximum pressure on Lukashenko by closing border crossings to trade. Simultaneously, we are actively advocating at all levels, including the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Polish media outlets, to ensure that travel to the EU remains accessible for Belarusian citizens. This encapsulates our approach.
A rather interesting situation is unfolding. In the short term, a historic opportunity might arise to exert significant pressure on Lukashenko, compelling him to not only cease the migration war but also to release political prisoners. Ideally, all of them, but even a hundred would be a step forward.
Let's examine the potential consequences for Lukashenko's regime if he remains intransigent. It seems he may have no choice but to yield.
Economic Fallout of Border Closure
The EU currently represents approximately $5.8 billion in Belarusian foreign trade. In 2023, Belarusian exports to the EU totaled €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion), while imports from the EU reached €4 billion ($4.3 billion).
The losses incurred from the disappearance of transit routes would be just as significant as the direct losses to Belarus's domestic market. The Belarusian railway workers' community estimates that Belarusian Railways alone could lose approximately $280 million in transit revenue. The cumulative losses across the entire transport industry would be staggering, inflicting long-term damage from which it would struggle to recover.
Approximately 4% of Chinese exports destined for the EU are transported through Belarus, primarily by rail. This route is particularly vital for time-sensitive goods, as rail transport, while more expensive, offers a faster alternative to maritime shipping, second only to air freight, which holds a smaller market share. The closure of this transit route could significantly disrupt China's trade with Europe.
It's important to note that after experiencing a decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine, the volume of goods transported by rail between China and Europe via Belarus began to rebound. The Polish railway terminal in Małaszewicze, situated on the Belarusian border, recorded a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in cargo volume during the first quarter of 2024.
Beyond the challenges posed to China, closing the border would also impede Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions. Russia currently exploits discrepancies in sanctions between the EU and Belarus, employing tactics like "false transit," where sanctioned goods are disguised as shipments bound for or originating from Asia but ultimately diverted to Russia or Belarus.
In addition to the railway, the primary route for road freight transport could also be blocked. The Kazlovichy truck crossing on the Polish border serves as the main gateway for goods moving between Belarus and the EU. To illustrate, on June 24th of this year, 773 trucks passed through Kazlovichy in a single direction, compared to a mere 98 through Beniakoni, 49 through Kamenny Loh, and 63 through Hryhorjaushchyna. Combined, all crossings on the Lithuanian and Latvian borders saw a total of 210 heavy trucks.
The indirect consequences of closing the border would also extend to smuggling activities, which serve as a lucrative source of income for the Lukashenko regime and its affiliated shadow networks. In 2023, the total value of smuggled goods detected on Poland's eastern border reached almost 50 million zlotys (11.6 million euros), with the lion's share originating from Belarus. Polish border guards and other agencies confiscated nearly 30 million zlotys (just under 7 million euros) worth of goods illegally imported from Belarus last year.
Dictators respond only to displays of force
Poland's firm stance, coupled with China's involvement, signals that Lukashenko is facing mounting pressure to back down. His failure to do so would be akin to sawing off the branch he's sitting on. The situation demands decisive action from Lukashenko. Refusal to compromise could lead to catastrophic economic and political consequences for his regime.
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