Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador
"Stop pushing Belarus towards Russia! Sanctions are to blame for everything! Give Lukashenko room to maneuver!" Wait, what maneuver?Perhaps a military one?
A military maneuver involves the organized movement of troops during a combat mission to secure a favorable position against the enemy, establish the necessary troop formations and assets, and effectively deploy strikes and firepower to destroy enemy groups and targets.
An "unexpected" air defense forces inspection recently took place, the same one that had Lukashenko quite concerned about its suddenness and the need for wartime readiness. It appears to be about defense. However, it's unclear who would be attacking Belarus unless Lukashenko plans to strike first.
And now, joint nuclear exercises with Russia. Practicing the use of nuclear weapons. Along with threats about the absence of "red lines."
All of this requires significant amounts of money and extensive utilization of resources. Resources that no country, especially one as economically challenged as Belarus under Lukashenko, would squander for no reason.
Here's another piece of news: Lukashenko dismisses the Chief of the General Staff, Major General Viktor Gulevich. He removes him precisely at the start of another attempted Russian offensive in the Kharkov region. Why does this news draw attention, you may ask?
Rumors suggest that Gulevich maintained contacts with Western counterparts who regarded him as an opponent of Belarus' active involvement in the war, including the Belarusian army.
And now Lukashenko fires him, right after returning from Moscow. Apparently, this is the "greeting from Moscow" that Lukashenko brought to his generals. Or more accurately, an order demanding the removal not only of those who disagree with active Belarusian army participation in the war against Ukraine but even those who harbor doubts.
So, what is Lukashenko preparing for? War? Are sanctions compelling him to take this course of action?
Lukashenko’s Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko provided a direct answer to this question at the end of April. He stated that increasing cooperation with Russia is irreversible, even if Western sanctions are eased:
"This process is already irreversible, regardless of how the international situation develops further. Even if the sanctions pressure weakens for some reason, we firmly understand, and our Russian colleagues share our viewpoint, that we have learned our lesson. We will rely solely on our own strength."
In other words, the choice has been made. Once and for all. With or without sanctions, Lukashenko's regime will continue to "integrate" with Russia. In translation, this means he will push Belarus towards Russia until our country becomes one with it.
This has already happened in military terms. And practically speaking, it has already occurred in the economic sphere. This is the maneuvering space that Lukashenko has left for Belarus.
It's a maneuver that will cost Belarus its independence if we persist in the utterly absurd notion that Lukashenko should not be provoked or pressured.