How did Lukashenko's recent meeting with the governor of the Novosibirsk region unfold, and why did we even pay attention to it? Let's see.
Lukashenko immediately declared, almost from the outset to Governor Travnikov and Russian Ambassador Gryzlov, "It won't be calm! They want to tear us apart!" However, he neglected to provide any evidence or present a map illustrating where this alleged division was being planned.
Subsequently, he proceeded to outline what needs to be done in order to prevent this supposed division. Lukashenko emphasized the necessity of spending petrodollars not on foreign goods but rather on himself, good old friend Lukashenko. However, this was not the extent of his demands.
Additionally, Lukashenko asserted the need to avoid duplicating production in both Russia and Belarus, urging the purchase of goods from him instead. For example, he mentioned self-igniting buses.
Furthermore, Lukashenko insisted on being allowed to "assist" Russians in their work on the "far arc." Essentially, he wanted to gain access not only to the Russian market but also to neighboring markets of countries that still engage in trade with Russia.
Moreover, Lukashenko expressed the desire to establish more centers through which he can operate in Russia, highlighting the particular importance of Novosibirsk. According to him, without it, there would be no Russia or at least half of it.
So, long story short, Lukashenko intends to expand into Siberian market, which he sees as a gateway to broader opportunities. He believes that Belarus is in "great demand" both within Russia and in the "distant arc." However, the specifics of this demand remain unclear.
Curiously, there is no "great demand" for Belarus in the European market or in the Western market as a whole. On the contrary, numerous sectors of the economy and foreign companies are leaving Belarus due to sanctions. That is the extent of the demand.
Lukashenko arrogantly dismisses this reality, stating that foreign investors won’t be missed in Belarus. But it is important to recognize that it was not Belarus bidding farewell; rather, it was the civilized world bidding farewell to Lukashenko due to his dictatorial, aggressive, and criminal actions.
Interestingly, even in Russia, Lukashenko's proposed approach is not widely embraced. They, too, face sanctions and are regarded as outcasts. They also require financial resources. However, Russia possesses oil and gas, which can be sold, whereas Lukashenko has nothing substantial to offer. Apart from the remnants of Belarusian sovereignty, that is. This is the sole bargaining chip he possesses in exchange for his extensive demands—access to markets, Siberia, and petrodollars. Ultimately, this is what genuinely piques Russia's interest.
"We need to establish our own Fatherland," that's how he refers to it. And that's precisely what he is doing. He implies that if there continue to be such "developments in the economy and good relations with Russia" - which seemingly refers to ongoing loan deferments and receiving another 4 billion through "free receipts from foreign countries," but in reality, from Russia - more is needed.
However, "there is no extra money" due to the working sanctions. Lukashenko's feeding troughs are emptying, but his appetites are not diminishing. The mustachioed beggar shamelessly and openly demands money and market access, declaring that if granted, there will be no need to agitate anyone. The campaign he refers to aims to turn Belarus into part of Russia.
This is what Lukashenko is peddling, he is not suggesting to buy Belarusian goods, he is suggesting to buy Belarus itself. Recognizing that he is now raising the price even by Russian standards, he resorts to his usual tactic of blackmail, scaring the Kremlin with "comprehensive reports" from his intelligence and special services, warning that there will be no peace and that unity will be destroyed.
Will Russia buy into this? It is unlikely that a sovereignty trader with 30 years of experience can successfully blackmail his "big brother." Moreover, they don't appear willing to wait another five years, which Lukashenko is begging for himself. Just like him, they understand that Russia's integration projects are already strained, along with the Ukrainian front. The "friendly states" within the CIS and CSTO have their own national interests, which do not involve being outcasts.
Kazakhstan and even Kyrgyzstan openly emphasize the importance of complying with sanctions. Armenia has ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which imposes obligations to detain Putin, who has an arrest warrant issued against him for war crimes. The picture that emerges is undeniably bleak for Russia, as its former allies increasingly drift away.
In an attempt to intimidate the Kremlin further, Lukashenko now threatens the impending rupture of the so-called "Union State" project, which aims to absorb Belarus into Russia. He "quoted" statements from certain Western officials in September-October, claiming that they advocated for dismantling the unity between Belarus and Russia.
On this point, we completely agree. It is necessary, as soon as possible. Both Belarusians and those officials whose planned division the dictator mentioned should seriously consider this. Lukashenko is already a political corpse, and it is crucial for us, the country, and the people not to go down with him. And, most importantly, we don't need to align ourselves with Russia.
Belarusians will always stand with Belarusians. As for the dictator, he can go to Siberia, as he requested during his meeting with the governor of the Novosibirsk region. Though it might be better for him to face justice in The Hague.
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