Pavel Latushka, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), discussed with NAM deputy head Artsiom Brukhan the Warsaw conference "Paths to Resolving the Political Crisis in Belarus Using the Example of Poland's Round Table", where various options for the power transition in Belarus were discussed.
"One of the key and fundamental conditions for a power transition in Belarus is the absence of Lukashenko as a subject. He will never engage in negotiations with representatives of the democratic forces, the democratic society. The elites under Lukashenko will also be afraid to communicate with representatives of the democratic forces. Therefore, our strategy is to eliminate this subject as a political institution that currently exists in our country. Belarusians will always reach an agreement with other Belarusians if it is not controlled by a dictator who has usurped power and is committing international crimes," said Pavel Latushka.
During the discussion, Artsiom Brukhan outlined four main options for the power transition:
"1. Classical democratic transition – This is when elections take place, as in the United States. A corresponding document is signed, and the outgoing president completes their term, after which power is handed over to the new president. This is an example of a classical democratic transition.
2. Revolutionary path – This is when the masses take to the streets, seize administrative buildings, proclaim themselves as the authorities, and new leaders emerge. This scenario is often accompanied by violence, arrests, or the expulsion of the current authorities.
3. Nomenklatura transition – In this scenario, internal forces surrounding the ruler may push him to step down from office. For example, this happened in the Soviet Union with the removal of General Secretary Khrushchev. For the regime’s enablers, this scenario could literally be life-threatening.
4. Dynastic transition – This is when power is passed from father to child. Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he would like to see his younger son, Nikolai, as his successor. However, according to the constitution written by Lukashenko, such a transfer of power is only possible after 20 years, when Lukashenko will be 90.
At present, the last scenario seems unrealistic. Nevertheless, the regime may attempt to combine the nomenklatura and dynastic transitions: in the event of Lukashenko’s deteriorating health, he could transfer power to a controlled figure, who would rule until his son Nikolai reaches the required age to assume the presidency".
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