Key points of the speech by Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, at the panel "Autocrats in the Neighbourhood: Europe’s Playbook for Democratic Defence" during the GLOBSEC Forum 2024 in Prague, as well as during bilateral meetings with representatives of European foreign ministries.
The most effective strategies for countering autocrats both domestically and internationally:
In order for a strategy to be effective, the most important thing is to have a strategy. As a Belarusian politician, I speak openly and frankly: I don't think anyone in the West today can clearly articulate to me what are the most effective strategies to counter autocratic leaders in Belarus and Russia.
I advocate for a strategy of pressure, a strategy aimed at dismantling Lukashenko's autocratic regime. As a former minister and ambassador, I assert that the previous strategy of democratic countries towards Lukashenko was one of constant repetition, with attempts to cosmetically liberalise the regime. This strategy has failed. Today, the Lukashenko regime has transformed into a totalitarian dictatorship internally and has extended beyond Belarus, committing international crimes: the hijacking of a civilian plane, a migration war against the EU, sending spies and saboteurs into neighboring European countries, taking foreign citizens hostage and using them as leverage, for example, against Germany, and committing acts of aggression.
We must also not forget the issue of nuclear weapons being stationed on Belarusian territory.
Is it possible to agree with the dictator in Belarus, who is the antipode of democracy, so that he would go for gradual democratisation? My answer is clear – no. Democratisation for him is self-destruction.
Long-term pressure on the Lukashenko regime has never been applied before. To retreat from pressure means to repeat the cycle. That is why we need a comprehensive strategy, we need to set the goal of abolishing Lukashenko's regime, and we need concrete actions. All these 4 years, with all my gratitude to the partners in democratic countries, we have seen a slow reaction to the aggressive actions of regimes which escalate the situation and continually raise the stakes. Why do regimes act this way? Dictators only understand the language of force, while democracies still communicate with them in a diplomatic dialect, which is perceived by these regimes as a sign of weakness.
We need to force the dictator to meet the demands of Belarusian society: the release of all political prisoners and the conduct of democratic elections.
We need to deploy all international and legal instruments. Lukashenko is responsible for thousands of political prisoners, the liquidation of 1,700 NGOs, the destruction of all 11 opposition political parties, and all independent media. He is accountable for political murders, torture of political prisoners, thousands of politically motivated sentences, the deportation of over 300,000 Belarusians from the country, acts of aggression against Ukraine, hybrid warfare, and war crimes, including the deportation of Ukrainian children. All of these, and more, constitute international crimes. My team at the National Anti-Crisis Management and other initiatives have prepared materials and identified tools to hold Lukashenko accountable. Who is ready to take the political decision and refer Lukashenko's case to the ICC? The bandit in Belarus is harming Belarusians and causing damage to you, European countries. Belarusians look at this and wonder: is democracy an effective tool? If Europe wants Belarusians to continue believing in democracy, Lukashenko’s criminal case must be submitted to the ICC this year, before the so-called presidential election.
Lessons that can be drawn from the experiences of other continents as well as Europe itself:
The main lesson we learn from the experience of democratic transformations in European countries such as Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Ukraine, and others - nobody but Belarusians can solve the problem of dictatorship in Belarus. The Belarusian people must return their subjectivity inside the country. This is our task, including for the democratic forces. How can our partners assist us? This is one of the key elements of the possible strategy which I spoke about earlier. The fundamental understanding is that the majority of Russians support the war and support Putin. We must be honest—that is the reality. Unlike Russians, most Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko. Where should we start to change the situation — Russia or Belarus? Has anyone thought about this? Everyone is convinced that we must start with Russia. But I say no; we need to start with Belarus. Western experts have convinced politicians that Putin will absorb Belarus. Putin wanted to eat his main dish, Ukraine, but he will break his teeth on it and leave Belarus for dessert. And I assert: he will not get to that dessert because 97% of Belarusians want to live in an independent Belarus. Russia does not have the resources today to absorb Belarus, and the Belarusian army will not run to fulfil Putin's orders. To prevent Belarus from being absorbed by Russia, it is important not to let Belarus become North Korea in Europe, it is important not to close the doors to Europe for Belarusians. The political will is needed again:
Sign a declaration of cooperation between Belarusian democratic institutions and the EU. For the first time in Europe, we have a sustainable system of democratic institutions in exile that serve as an alternative to the Lukashenko regime: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the elected president; The United Transitional Cabinet, the executive body of the Belarusian democratic forces; The Coordination Council, the representative body of the Belarusian democratic forces, elected through direct elections in May of this year.
Do not close border crossings to passenger traffic.
Issue more visas to Belarusians.
Significantly increase support for independent media. Russian and Lukashenko's propaganda invest enormous financial resources to change the mentality of Belarusians and turn us into Russians. If this happens, in a few years the fortifications being built by Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia on the border will be needed.
Provide 12,000 scholarships at European universities for Belarusians. This is the same number that Russia provides annually.
Last but not least. Support Belarusian identity and motivate Belarusians by demonstrating the European perspective and addressing the question of accountability for Lukashenko’s crimes against Belarusians. We will organise underground activities ourselves. We do not need F-16s or Leopards; give them to Ukraine in as many numbers as possible. Hold Lukashenko accountable and give us the opportunity to split the elites.
Is the democratic community doing enough to prevent the entrenchment and flourishing of authoritarian tendencies:
We keep returning to the lack of a comprehensive strategy: allegedly pressuring the regime, but not enough; imposing trade sanctions, but not creating shocks; harmonizing sanctions against both Lukashenko’s regime and Russia for the war, but not completely; declaring at a high level the necessity of holding Lukashenko accountable, but not applying accountability measures in practice. How does Lukashenko read this? As a weakness from the West. He himself has even mentioned this more than once, even publicly. And yet the regime continues to commit crimes and engage in terrorism.
We see a tactic of reactive rather than proactive actions, a tactic without a strategy. And I have already spoken about the elements of strategy. I will add an important point, as I see it. You know, Lukashenko will die tomorrow. Well, not tomorrow, in a year. So what? We need a motivated society, a politicised society, a safely politicised society.
Playing games with Lukashenko today is a tactic; he will be gone tomorrow, but the Belarusian people will remain. To ensure they stay Belarusian, a proactive strategy supporting the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people is needed.
We don't need F-16s and Leopards, give them to Ukraine in as large a number as possible. Hold Lukashenko accountable and give us the opportunity to split the elites.
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