Theses of Pavel Latushka's speech at the "Rose-Roth" seminar organized by the Polish Parliament and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly
Panel "Internal Dynamics of Belarus and the Resilience of Civil Society"
Warsaw, September 17, 2024
I thank Madam President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for her opening speech.
Dear Madam Chairperson of the Polish Delegation Ionna Kuzlik, Dear Mr. Vice-President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Marcos Perestrello, Madam Moderator Vadai Agnes, Dear Members of the Parliaments, Representatives of the Diplomatic Corps.
"We must have a democratic offer for the citizens of Belarus. For those who said clearly during the 2020 elections that they see their future in the Western community, and not on the side of the Eastern dictatorships. I am sure that Minsk will sooner or later find itself on the bright side of power", — this is a quote from yesterday's speech by Senate Marshal Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, and I thank her and, in her person, the Polish authorities, the Polish parliament, for this principled position.
Is the Belarusian regime a problem for today's European security? My answer is yes. And a democratic Belarus is the key to security in Europe.
I remember a conversation at the French Foreign Ministry a year ago, a high-ranking French diplomat told me: "We made a mistake by not realizing in 2020 what the Lukashenko’s regime could do in its repressions against Belarusians and in support of Russia's aggression against Ukraine".
I thought: it's like eating a bar of dark chocolate. On the one hand, it is sweet that this realization has come, and on the other hand, it is bitter that it has come too late. If we imagine today that there is a democratic government in Minsk, would a war between Russia and Ukraine be possible? More likely no than yes. At the very least, it would not have had such terrible consequences for the Ukrainian people and the security of Europe as we see today.
But we cannot turn back history, so today I would like to address you, esteemed parliamentarians of NATO member states: is it in the interests of Europe to preserve the totalitarian regime of dictator Lukashenko in Belarus? I am sure that it is not. I am convinced that the interests of European security are met by:
Abolition of totalitarianism in Belarus
Preservation of an independent, democratic and European Belarus
Is it possible to negotiate with the dictator in Belarus, who is the antipode of democracy, so that he goes for gradual democratization? My answer is unequivocal — no. Democratization for him is self — destruction.
Long-term pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime has never been applied before. To step back from the pressure is to repeat the circle. Therefore, a comprehensive strategy is needed, the goal of abolishing the Lukashenko’s regime is needed, and concrete actions are needed. All these 4 years, with all my gratitude to our partners in democratic countries, we have seen a slow reaction to the aggressive actions of regimes that escalate the situation and constantly raise the stakes. Why do regimes do this? Dictators understand only the language of power, and democracies still speak to them in a diplomatic dialect, which is perceived by regimes as a manifestation of weakness.
We must admit that today the only country in the world that has a clear strategy towards Belarus is the Russian Federation.
The Western world has not yet adopted a proactive strategy towards a democratic Belarus. The policy towards the Lukashenko’s regime is reactive, not proactive. We realize that Russia has a strategic goal — to include Belarus in Russia, and at the present stage, to subjugate dictator Lukashenko as much as possible as its puppet. At the same time, dictator Lukashenko is building a totalitarian system inside the country in order to destroy all the democratic intentions of Belarusians. Lukashenko fatally lost the elections in 2020, retains power thanks to Russia and massively repressing the Belarusian society.
To understand what is happening in Belarus today, I will give you a few figures.
Today, there are about 1,400 political prisoners in Belarus, many of whom are latent political prisoners;
The criminal prosecution of Belarusians who disagree with Lukashenko's regime has reached a level of more than 450 criminal cases per quarter — an absolute maximum over the past 4 years;
Since 2020, the number of detentions for political reasons known to human rights activists is about 65,000 (!) people;
Since 2020, 1,700 NGOs have been liquidated, which is more than 50% of those that existed before 2020;
All independent media have been liquidated;
All 11 opposition political parties have been liquidated;
According to the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 300,000 Belarusians have been deported from Belarus.
One example: I am a delegate of the Coordinating Council — our Proto-Parliament, and in May 2024 we had direct competitive elections. My electoral list won, we got 35% of the votes. What did Lukashenko do? He publicly stated, and then implemented it in relation to all participants in the elections: criminal cases were initiated against 257 delegates, almost all of them had their property seized in Belarus. But he went further, he started detaining our mothers and fathers. Maybe this question is inappropriate, but are any of you, members of democratic parliaments, ready to shake hands with this dictator who carries out such repressions against your colleagues? I hope, I'm sure not.
There are glasses on your tables from which you drink water. Do you know what a glass means for a political prisoner in Belarus? It's a cell that you can't sit in. But you can only stand all the time. Which has a concrete floor. In 2024, Belarus detained hundreds of people for helping and transferring food to political prisoners, most of them women. And Lukashenko ordered special bullying of elderly women. They were put in such cells barefoot, for several hours, by women who were 60-70 years old. It's torture and it happens every day. The police raped men, women, and children with batons. 6 political prisoners were killed in prisons.
Lukashenko commits the most massive repressions in the last 50 years of European history, which he does not stop for a single one. Nobel Peace Laureate Ales Bialiatski, journalist, public figure, representative of the Polish minority in Belarus Andrzej Poczobut, cultural figures, lawyers, public figures, historians, budget workers, workers — all categories of citizens are in prison.
Lukashenko has recently carried out a number of so-called targeted "pardons" of political prisoners. But we need to understand this clearly.
Firstly, this is a deeply erroneous term when applied to Lukashenko's actions. You cannot pardon innocent people whom you have thrown behind bars on false, politically motivated sentences.
Secondly, it is important that people are released from prison, but these people are free only conditionally, with severely curtailed rights and under the permanent control of law enforcement agencies. They remain repressed.
And thirdly, having "pardoned" some, Lukashenko's regime has thrown other Belarusians behind bars and opened hundreds more criminal cases. The repressions have not stopped, neither qualitatively nor quantitatively. On the contrary, they are growing. The repressions must stop. As long as they continue, it is pointless to look for "positive signals" in Lukashenko's actions.
We must not forget that the dictator committed an act of state terrorism, hijacked a civilian Ryanair plane. The dictator began in 2021 and continues a migration war against all neighbors of EU members (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia). The dictator provided in 2022 all military and civilian infrastructure for the Russian army to start aggression against Ukraine, continues to supply weapons to Russia. He will declare that he placed Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
I constantly ask myself, as a lawyer, as a diplomat, what else should Lukashenko do to bring the last dictator of Europe to justice? Of the 4 most serious international crimes, he has committed three:
A crime against humanity — against the Belarusian people;
A war crime — the deportation of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus;
An act of aggression against a neighboring state — Ukraine.
Until he committed the fourth — genocide.
Here in Poland, we see attacks on Polish border guards, causing them serious injuries and mutilations. We saw the murder of a Polish soldier on the border with Belarus. We saw sabotage, arson on the territory of Poland and Lithuania, organized by Lukashenko's special services. Forgive me if I get personal, but at the end of July I testified at the National Prosecutor's Office of Poland in a case of incitement to murder... me with the participation of foreign special services.
And now the Western world has a choice. Either do what they have been doing for 30 years with regard to Lukashenko, start communicating with him, but we see the result of these five-year cycles, the facts I have given above. Or start implementing a strategy to support a democratic Belarus. So that democratic changes take place in Belarus, and Belarus becomes a donor of stability in the region.
The main lesson we learn from the experience of democratic transformations in European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Ukraine, Lithuania and others is that no one except Belarusians can solve the problem of dictatorship in Belarus. The Belarusian people must regain their subjectivity within the country. This is our strategic task, including that of democratic forces.
How can our partners help us? And this is one of the key elements of a possible strategy that I spoke about earlier. We need to recognize the difference between Russian and Belarusian society — the majority of Russians support the war and support Putin — this is reality, unlike Russians, the majority of Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko.
Where should we start changing the situation — with Russia or with Belarus? Has anyone thought about this? Everyone is convinced that we need to start with Russia. And I say — no, we need to start with Belarus. Western experts have convinced politicians that Putin will swallow Belarus. Putin wanted to eat lunch, but he will break his teeth on the main course, Ukraine, and for dessert - Belarus. And I say: he will not eat this dessert, because 97% of Belarusians want to live in an independent Belarus.
In order for Belarus not to be absorbed by Russia, it is important not to allow Belarus to become the North Korea of Europe, it is important not to close the doors to Europe for Belarusians. Again, political will is needed, but is it worth betting on Lukashenko in this situation? My answer is no, because betting on a dictator means betraying Belarusianswho are fighting for freedom, it means turning a blind eye to his crimes, it means betraying European values, betting on Lukashenko is a tactic. Tomorrow Lukashenko will be gone, he will die, and all bets were on Lukashenko. Therefore, my formula is to bet on the Belarusian people, but for this we need the political will to adopt a strategy:
Sign a declaration on cooperation between the institutions of democratic forces of Belarus and the EU. For the first time in Europe, we have a stable system of democratic institutions in exile, they are an alternative to the Lukashenko regime: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the president-elect, the United Transitional Cabinet is the executive body of the democratic forces of Belarus, the Coordination Council is a representative body of the democratic forces of Belarus, elected for the first time in direct elections in May of this year;
Do not close border crossings for passenger traffic;
Issue more visas to Belarusians;
Increase support for independent media many times over. Russian propaganda and Lukashenko's propaganda are investing huge financial resources in changing the mentality of Belarusians, making Russians out of us, and Lukashenko is helping Russians and making "tin soldiers" out of bedlarusians. If this happens, then in a few years the fortifications that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are building on the border will be in demand;
Provide thousands of scholarships in European universities for Belarusians. After all, Russia provides so much every year, thus forming its fifth column;
Lukashenko plans to reappoint himself to the post he usurped in 2025. I appeal to parliamentarians today to make public statements about not recognizing what Lukashenko is organizing in Belarus as "elections". He has no right to appoint them, he is illegitimate. Thousands of political prisoners in prisons, 2 candidates for the post of president in the last elections are also in prison, opposition parties, independent media, more than 1700 NGOs have been destroyed, repressions are increasing every day. About a million Belarusians living beyond the ruble are deprived, by the decision of the dictator, of the right to participate in elections. We need your open, honest position. Each of you has a Twitter, publish your position already, why wait tomorrow;
I appeal to those countries where parliamentary groups for cooperation with the democratic Belarus have not been formed. It already has an elected representative body — the Coordination Council. I am asking you to create such groups and establish cooperation with the Coordination Council and the United Transitional Cabinet;
Last but not least. Support the identity and motivate Belarusians, demonstrate the European perspective and raise the issue of Lukashenko's responsibility for crimes against Belarusians. We are not asking for F-16s and Leopards, hand them over to Ukraine in as many quantities as possible. Bring Lukashenko to justice, give us the opportunity to split the elites.
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