Theses of Pavel Latushka's speech Berlin Belarus Future Forum German and European Support for Democratic Belarus: What’s possible? What’s working? What’s missing?
Berlin, 14.10.2024
I would like to thank The Konrad Adenauer Foundation, The Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Heinrich Böll Foundation and Friedrich Naumann Foundation for organizing the first Berlin Belarus Future Forum and for the constant support you give to the Belarusian civil society in its aspiration for freedom, democracy and a European future for Belarus.
I am an optimist. And I am convinced that such a future — democratic and European — awaits Belarus. Why don't I question it? Because it's not just about believing in the best. It is about the goal. Strategy. And the result.
There are grounds for my optimism.
One of them is the Bundestag Resolution “For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family” adopted on November 7, 2023. Once again, I would like to thank the members of the Bundestag present here for the creation and adoption of this systemic document.
It is important to underline — this is a systemic document of strategic importance.
What do I mean? If this Resolution, along with the approaches and principles it outlines, are adopted as a basis for the strategy of Germany, as one of the leading states of the European Union — then the path of Belarus to democracy and the European future will become much shorter. As well as the path to security in the region.
But in order to talk about the strategy, it is important to clearly define its goal. In my opinion, this is what is missing today.
I propose to define this goal: a democratic Belarus as an integral part of the European community and regional security system.
Democratization of Belarus and security in Europe are closely connected. Democratic Belarus, Belarus without Lukashenko, cannot a priori be a threat either to Ukraine or to Europe.
Unfortunately, our partners did not have enough political will to support the struggle of Belarusians in 2020 with quick, decisive measures, quick application of sanctions and other effective mechanisms of pressure on the Lukashenko regime.
As a result — war against Ukraine, hybrid war against the European Union. And this is a direct result of the Lukashenko regime's staying in power.
It is also important to define the basic point: Lukashenko's regime is a permanent threat to European security. This is a fact. But the key to security in Europe also lies in Belarus. In democratic Belarus.
A question to German politicians: are they ready for the public statement — democratization of Belarus equals the end of Lukashenko's regime? This should not be your “red line”. This “red line” is the result of the incorrect strategy that has been prevailing in the Western policy for a long time.
A strategy with an eye on Russia, based on outdated concepts of “spheres of influence”. We see where it has led.
In 2022, Russia, backed by the Lukashenko regime, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And for the first time, the world's eyes began to open to what happens when you let the aggressors establish their “spheres of influence” and their “borders” for a long time. But the eyes are still not fully opened. And not everyone wants to open them.
Is Ukraine getting enough help? We all know it is not. And at the same time, it is also receiving restrictions, “red lines”. Does this bring Ukraine closer to victory and Europe closer to security? Of course not.
And does the preservation of Lukashenko's pro-Russian dictatorship in Belarus bring Ukraine closer to victory and Europe closer to security? The answer is also no.
I will say more — Ukraine's victory alone will not be enough to restore security. As long as there is a dictatorship in Belarus and Belarus will not stop being considered and being in Russia's “sphere of influence,” Europe will be in danger.
It is a mistake to delay the issue of Belarus' democratization until Ukraine's victory. And moreover — before democratic changes in Russia. The logic is the opposite. Democratic changes in Belarus and depriving Russia of the opportunity to use Belarus for its purposes will accelerate Ukraine's victory many times over. This is not a “red line” — it is a necessity.
Moreover, the potential of changes in Belarus, the potential of Belarusan society — is much higher than in Russia. The majority of Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko. In Russia, the situation is the opposite — the majority of Russians are for the war and for Putin.
In 2020, Belarusians showed that they were ready for democracy. And this readiness has not gone anywhere, despite all the terrible hardships and mass terror that our people have been going through since then. And this is the basis, the foundation, which does not exist in Russia, but exists in Belarus. The foundation on which the strategy of Germany and the European Union as a whole regarding Belarus should be based.
Belarusians are willing and ready for democracy. But just like Ukraine, we need not reactive but proactive allies. With clear goal-setting. With a clear strategy.
Strategy, not tactics. At the center of this strategy should be the stake on the Belarusian society and on the political institutions of Belarusian democratic forces.
The situation for the beginning of the transit of power can occur at any moment. Lukashenko will die tomorrow. Who will Europe bet on? On his successor, the new dictator? Or on a Russian protégé, a new puppet of the Kremlin? No one predicted the events of 2020 in Belarus. We cannot repeat the mistake and again take an observing position instead of quick measures to support the struggle of Belarusians for democracy.
That is why at the beginning of my speech I said that the Bundestag Resolution “For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family” is a systemic document that has the potential to become a strategy.
Strategy, the goal of which is a democratic Belarus as an integral part of the European community and regional security system.
What is missing to adopt such a strategy? To be honest, political will.
To move from words to deeds. From resolutions and declarations to strategy and systemic actions. And all of them are spelled out and compiled in this document.
1. This is non-recognition of Lukashenko and non-recognition of his fake “elections”, both past and future, planned for 2025.
2. This is a systemic, stable (including financial) support of organizations and initiatives of civil society, the activities of which are primarily directed inside Belarus. As well as support for independent media and bloggers. And this support should be multiplied, realizing that today Russia allocates billions for the promotion of the “russian world” in Belarus. And the EU — only a few millions.
3. This is support for the established and functioning system of political institutions of Belarusian democratic forces. A real democratic alternative to the pro-Russian Lukashenko regime. This is the President-Elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus as an executive body. And the Coordination Council as a representative body.
4. This is the continuation and intensification of sanctions pressure on the Lukashenko regime. This is the continuation of the policy of harmonizing sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and Russia for the aggression against Ukraine.
5. This is bringing Lukashenko and his accomplices to international criminal responsibility for their crimes. You know that on September 30 of this year the Lithuanian government submitted to the Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC in The Hague materials on cross-border crimes against humanity committed by the Lukashenko regime against the Belarusian people.
A historical precedent has been set. The road for the restoration of justice was opened. The Minsk-Gaaga train with a passenger named Lukashenko moved on September 30, 2024. And it will reach its destination. Lukashenko's arrest warrant will become one of the most important levers for splitting the elites at a critical moment. There won’t be many people willing to become Lukashenko's traveling companions on the Minsk-Hague train and share the status of international criminals with him.
But this train can and must be accelerated. The sooner the responsibility for Lukashenko and his accomplices comes — the sooner the future, about which we are talking, will come for Belarus and Belarusians. Belarusians deserve justice. And to help provide it is what democratic countries can do. The support of such strong and influential states as Germany is extremely important in this way. Each State Party to the Rome Statute can exercise its right under Article 14 of the Statute, as Lithuania has already done.
6. It is important to build more systematic and periodic cooperation with the institutions of Belarusian democratic forces in the key directions outlined above. Not a monologue, but interaction.
7. Not to decide the fate of Belarus behind the back of the Belarusian society.I'm an optimist. But not an idealist. And I realize that the path to a democratic European Belarus will take time. But the route has been defined. And the strategy is basically in front of us. Yes, we can discuss, adjust and improve it. But let's do it on the move, on the way to the goal.Is anyone present in this room ready to believe Lukashenko? Believe him again? Then they must be prepared for another circle.
Thank you for your attention. Жыве Беларусь!
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