Our current scenario to counter it involves the active use of all available leverages on the IMF leadership and our international partners — to achieve the blocking of access to the SDR account of Belarus for the illegitimate government of Lukashenka. The reason — the non-recognition of its legitimacy — is the same as in the case of Venezuela, Myanmar and Afghanistan. It is worth noting that with regard to Afghanistan, the IMF reacted instantly.
Why is the IMF so long silent on Belarus?
Various partner structures are considering a solution to this issue in 3 options:
1) Allied central banks will not exchange SDRs for USD/EUR/CHF;
2) partner diplomacy will work with other IMF members to ensure that they too do not exchange SDRs for currency for Lukashenka;
3) to apply the Venezuela scenario, it would be of great importance that the winner of the election could have accepted the appropriate authority, followed by recognition by foreign partners. This would make it much easier to work against Lukashenka’s receiving $ 1 billion from the IMF.
Why the first two options have little chance of success:
- SDR market has long been liberalized, so Belarus will be able to sell them to any of the 192 IMF member countries without any additional requirements from the Fund;
- or raise $ 1 billion in the Chinese and Russian markets, pledging the received SDRs;
- or run a procedure under the "deal with appointment" rule, under which the IMF itself will be obliged to find the country to buy the Belarusian SDRs. If Belarus requests this mechanism, the IMF will not be able to refuse.
‼️So we have "Plan B":
We have already sent letters to all the countries that imposed sanctions against the regime with a proposal to include the National Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Belarus in the sanctions lists. This will block the possibility for the regime to exchange SDRs for real money, despite the existing IMF procedures.
However, it is important to understand that the entry into force of the IMF decision on the distribution of SDR on August 23 — does not yet mean that the scenario with the blocking of the right to dispose of the SDR account for the regime will not be possible. We have a strong ally in this scenario who agrees with our arguments — the Chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Robert Menendez, who sent a corresponding letter to US President Joe Biden on August 20.
But our job is to consider all scenarios and be prepared for them.
We can’t let Lukashenka get that billion. And we will fight until we win.
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